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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7) [Total: 49.5]
Game overview
Week 12’s Sunday slate concludes with a pivotal matchup between the NFC division leaders. The Rams are riding high, coming off an emphatic win over the Seahawks to take sole possession of the NFC West. The Buccaneers are trying to snap a two-game skid after losing in a shootout to the Bills, and while they have a slim lead over the Panthers in the NFC South, a loss in this game could shake things up at the top.
After failing to score as 3.5-point favorites at home in Week 11, the Rams fell to 3-2 against the spread in Los Angeles. That could pose a problem as Baker Mayfield, the road king himself, is next. Since signing the former No. 1 pick in 2023, Tampa Bay maintains a 72.2% coverage percentage as a road underdog.
However, injuries to key playmakers have taken their toll on the Buccaneers, who have cooled off as of late. Tampa Bay has managed just one of its past four games, including blown covers as six-point underdogs in Detroit and Buffalo. The Rams can go even further, ranking first in PFF team offensive rating (90.7) and second in PFF team defensive rating (84.7).
QB Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams: Over 256.5 passing yards (-114)
The current MVP frontrunner can float the ball with the best of them. His PFF grade of 92.2 ranks as the NFL’s best through Week 11, highlighted by a league-leading 23 big throws. It helps to have two of the most talented receivers in the game in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, both of whom rank in the top 10 in PFF overall grade among qualifying receivers.
The 37-year-old passer has averaged 255.7 passing yards per game this season and has generated 280 yards or more in two of the Rams’ past three games. Stafford is primed for success against a Buccaneers defense that has struggled to slow down quarterbacks this season after ranking fifth in the NFL. They have allowed more than 260 passing yards in five of the past six games and had six quarterbacks perform above expectations to cash in on the win this season.
Tampa Bay ranks 25th in success rate allowed (40.5%), largely due to issues stopping play. The Buccaneers rank last in the NFL in yards allowed per dropback on play action. That doesn’t bode well for them against Stafford, who boasts the second-highest PFF play-action grade in the NFL.
To make matters worse, the Buccaneers have ruled out Jamel Dean, the second-highest cornerback (83.3) in the NFL this season. That will put pressure on freshman cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who has struggled in his limited time in the lineup, posting just a PFF coverage grade of 46.6. A secondary is only as strong as its weakest link, and I expect Stafford will test that link often.
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