Banking giant JPMorgan says the strategy of Michael Saylor, formerly MicroStrategy, holds the key to BTC’s future price, with its possible removal from the MSCI stock indices next month already priced in.
With the ratio of Strategy’s enterprise value to its Bitcoin holdings, or mNAVwhile the value remains above 1, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin buyer is unlikely to be forced to sell some of its $60 billion BTC supply, analysts led by chief executive Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said.
“If this ratio remains above 1.0 and MicroStrategy can ultimately avoid selling bitcoins, markets will likely be reassured and the worst for bitcoin prices will likely be behind us,” the analysts said.
They reiterated their belief that Bitcoin has huge upside potential, with the volatility-adjusted comparison of Bitcoin to gold implying a theoretical BTC price of almost $170,000 within the next six to twelve months.
That’s an 84% increase from the $92,354 level Bitcoin is trading at at 3:43 a.m. EST, according to CoinMarketCap.
JPMorgan’s comments follow a more than 49% decline in the MSTR price over the past month, amid a broad crypto market correction.
Share price strategy (Source: Google Finance)
That share price drop raised fears that Strategy would be forced to sell some of its 650,000 BTC to meet upcoming debt obligations. The fears are further compounded by the recent slowdown in Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation, which CryptoQuant says shows the company is preparing for a bear market.
Reserve fund buffer
JPMorgan analysts said Strategy’s decision to set up a $1.4 billion reserve fund to ensure it can meet dividend payments and other obligations further reduces the likelihood that forced Bitcoin sales from Strategy will occur “in the near future.”
To view the accompanying press release and investor presentation, click here: https://t.co/5k0IczrI86
— Strategy (@Strategy) December 1, 2025
In a recent SEC filing, the company said the reserve gives it 12 months to pay down its debt. Strategy added that it will look to extend coverage to a 24-month period.
Potential MSCI takedown is already priced in
Amid fears that Strategy will sell off some of the BTC as the MSTR continues to fall, there is also the company’s possible delisting from the MSCI, a benchmark used by several fund management firms.
Strategy’s share price has plummeted 40% since MSCI announced the possible removal of digital asset treasury companies from its indexes on October 10. It has over the same period it also underperformed Bitcoin by 20%, giving it a market value of around $18 billion.
Previously, JPMorgan had warned that the possible delisting from MSCI would lead to potential outflows of up to $12 billion for MSTR.
But the analysts now say the impact the potential removal would have on MSTR “is already more than priced in.”
That echoes comments from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan earlier this week.
“I’m not convinced that removal would be a major problem for the stock,” Hougan said. “My experience in watching index additions and deletions over the years is that the effect is usually smaller than you think and priced in well in advance.”
When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index last December, Hougan said funds tracking the index had to buy $2.1 billion worth of MSTR, but the stock price “barely moved.”
The MSCI is expected to make a decision on January 15.
JPMorgan analysts said that if MSCI were to keep Strategy in its indexes, there would be a strong rebound for both Bitcoin and MSTR, estimating that this could allow prices to return to levels seen before the October 10 flash crash.
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