Stock market forecast in the week of August 31 = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show a layout for US shares.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) dropped 0.1%. The index is ~ 2% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 8% above the progressive average of 200 days.
SPX price and volume card before August 31, 2025
On-balance is back in Bullish Territorium, but also has a bearish divergence since the end of July. The ADX is also blurred during that period, which suggests that the current rally loses some steam. Last week the market received a postponement of institutional sales and the distribution days will fall throughout the week.
Performance comparisons
Energy ($ XLE) LED sectors again higher last week; Utilities and staples for consumers ($ XLU & $ XLP) were the worst artists. Staples also fell on Beerarish bias.
S&P sector performance from week 35 of 2025
Small Cap value ($ IWN) Expressed for a third week, but the overall winnings were small. Low beta ($ SPLV) Was the lagging. No changes in Bias; All styles are bullish.
Sector style performance from week 35 of 2025
Gold ($ Gld) LED assets at the top, while Bitcoin ($ 4) Was the worst artist for the second week in a row. Add insult to injury, Bitcoin ($ 4) September starts with a bearish bias. The US Dollar ($ Dxy) Is neutral again.
Acti -class performance of week 35 2025
COMMENTARY
NVIDIA ($ NVDA) reported better than expected results last week, but the stock price took a small hit because analysts expected higher data center income ($ 41.1b versus $ 41.3b). The guidance for the next quarter was also lower than expected, largely because they do not take sale to China. Since the share is good for 8% of the S&P500, the price has an extra large impact on the index.
The second estimate of the Q2 BBP was higher than the first, from 3% to 3.3%, mainly as a result of upward revisions of investments and data on consumer expenditure.
Headline PCE data for July were inline with estimates, while Core was slightly higher. For the first time in many months there were no revisions of previous data!
| PCE (J/Y) | Really | Prior | Expected |
| Head | +2.6% | +2.6% | +2.6% |
| Core | +2.9% | +2.8% | +2.9% |
This week the American markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. Later in the week we receive the latest PMI data, as well as Jolts and NFP.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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