Stock market output in the week of 17 August = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show an upward trend for US shares, although the institutional sale is increasing again.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) rose 0.9%. The index is ~ 4% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 9% above the 200-day advancing average.
The market added 2 distribution days last week, so that the total was brought to 6 (that has been raised) and the Institutional activity Signal to neutral.
SPX price and volume card before August 17, 2025
Performance comparisons
Healthcare ($ XLV) LED sectors higher, while utilities and staples consumers ($ XLU & $ XLP) underperformed. Materials and Healthcare ($ XLB & $ XLV) Bullish bias and energy recovered ($ XLE) rose to neutral.
S&P sector performance from week 33 of 2025
Small Cap value ($ IWN) the other styles surpassed, while momentum and low beta ($ MTUM & $ SPLV) Came away with small losses.
Sector style performance from week 33 of 2025
Despite a turbulent week, US shares led to the assets higher and gold ($ Gld) underperformed. Gold also tests biased levels, while the US dollar fell back on Beerarish bias.
Acti -class performance of week 33 2025
COMMENTARY
Last week’s inflation data also surprised the benefit; Not good for people with hope for large interest rates.
Headline CPI was the “best” lecture, which now changed in the year after year measurements. Core CPI increased in July, and that is on top of an upward overhaul to June data (from 2.8% to 2.9%).
| CPI (Y/Y) | Really | Prior | Expected |
| Head | +2.7% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Core | +3.1% | +2.9%* | +3.0% |
Headline and Core PPI showed a sharper increase in inflation values. The headline data rose to 3.3%, on top of an upward overhaul to June -data (from 2.3% to 2.4%). Core was the worst and jumped more 1%.
| PPI (J/Y) | Really | Prior | Expected |
| Head | +3.3% | +2.4%* | +2.5% |
| Core | +3.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% |
The sale of the retail trade showed an increase of 3.9% year after year, by June; S 4.4%.
And finally, the research of the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment fell to 58.6, well below the market expectations of 62, due to inflation problems and higher prices for sustainable goods (eg furniture, devices, etc.).
Data releases this week relate to housing, although all eyes and ears on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, are for the annual symposium of the US Federal Reserve. Specifically, talking heads will try to assess all changes in the ‘tone’ of the speech of chairman Powell on Friday.
The increase in institutional sales activity (noted above) coincides with other traditional technical measures that an overbough market show with bearish -up deviations that develop (eg MacD, RSI, etc.). Although it is not time to panic, it is time to harvest part of those summers.
Activa class and sector preference has lately been volatile, which is in line with the historic trend for August. Not entirely outright rotation, but there were certainly a few power shifts behind the scenes. With seasonal September around the corner, view those assignments and make sure they are still useful. Consider adding positions that are still bullish biased, but sold over.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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