Soper: Today’s housing math works. Buyers have to believe it.

Mortgage rates have stabilized to a level that supports healthy activity. And after years of scarcity, more homes are finally coming onto the market.

Why are so many Canadians still on the sidelines?

The past four years have provided a relentless supply of uncertainty. First: high rates. Then political drama and global trade tensions. It left many people conditioned to wait the next shoe to drop. That instinct is understandable. But the data tells something completely different story: The Canadian housing market is moving forward again – quietly, steadily, step by step step.

Our first-line brokers share their stories with me. They tell me confident young families are back and say the time is right. The reset is behind us. Now we build.

The affordability shift

Financing costs are no longer the culprit in this story.

After nearly two decades of ultra-low borrowing costs, things are returning to more normal levels Mortgage rates can feel shocking. You’re forgiven if you’re relatively new to the business and believe that mortgages of less than three percent are typical. They’re not. These interest rates emerged from the crisis – first from the collapse of the US financial system in 2008, and more recently from the crisis. extraordinary global disruption caused by the COVID pandemic.

The Bank of Canada has cut rates nine times since the 2023 pandemic-induced peak inflation. Mortgage interest rates are now both the new and the old normal – healthy, sustainable rates that are in line with a balanced economy.

Our consumer survey in early 2025 showed that 29 percent of consumers wanted to buy a house waited for interest rates to drop. This fall, our central bank was clear: they will not do that stimulate demand through monetary policy and run the risk of a revival of inflation. The very The strong employment performance that ended 2025 underscored that point.

With popular fixed mortgages in the three to four percent range, buyers can now move forward without worrying about cheaper money coming next week. Just that clarity has begun unlock question.

The reset holds

Royal LePage’s latest market research forecast assumes very modest price gains more significant improvements in sales activity through 2026 as buyers continue get off the sidelines. At a national level, we expect the total price of a house in Canada increase by only one percent annually.

Prices of detached homes are forecast to rise by two percent, while condominium values ​​are expected to fall by 2.5 percent, as the sharp drop in immigration, the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students reduces the size of the renter base, meaning the return of investor-buyers will be slower.

Regionally, the picture is mixed, as always in our vast country. And that is healthy. In Home prices are expected to rise in Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Halifax to continue making small incremental gains. Affordability remains competitive advantage in these cities, supporting stable demand.

Meanwhile, Greater Montreal is expected to see a five percent gain, and Quebec City will remain the standout performer in the country, with prices expected to rise 12 percent next year power of major public works projects and limited supply.

Home values ​​in the higher-end markets of Greater Toronto and Vancouver are is expected to fall by single digits, creating a rare opportunity for buyers of Canadian stocks most expensive houses.

Historically, these are the most difficult places in the country for starters To break into the market, the current environment represents a rare window. Fewer competition. More inventory. Better negotiating conditions. Stable home values.

These don’t seem like the headlines of a crisis. They look like an opportunity.

Housing supply: we cannot back down now

Years of underconstruction have brought us to this challenge of affordability, and only construction can do that us out. Real progress has been made: CMHC reported that housing is beginning Canada’s largest markets hit record highs in 2025 as municipalities embraced it a favorable zoning policy and politicians became aware of the supply challenge.

Yet it has not been uniform. Toronto and Vancouver see sharp declines in pre-construction sales, leading to delays and cancellations of major projects. The issue will solve themselves in the long term. I am not concerned about the economic future of this vibrant, world-class cities.

Here’s the important message around our national housing stock: we cannot relax simply because house price inflation is not making headlines today.

Canada still has a structural housing shortage. It will take years of disciplined building to correct it. And building the right kinds of homes is just as important as building more. Duplexes, triplexes and townhomes offer the mix of space, density and affordability that Canadians enjoy are urgently looking for, without creating urban expansion.

Edmonton and Calgary are great examples of what is possible. That is the direction Canada must continue to move in– a housing system built for the future, not just the next market cycle.

Political stability paves the way for action

After a turbulent political cycle, Canadians are showing renewed confidence in our economy federal leadership. That stability is important. It opens the door for long-needed reforms from promise to progress.

The Build Canada Homes initiative is a serious step, but its implementation will be decisive success. Public land; factory-built housing; faster approvals; smart infrastructure.

The market has done its part. Now governments at all levels must do their part speed, no slogans.

A call for trust

Canadians have been given a reprieve from the ongoing housing price cycle exceeded wages. Our research shows that Millennials and Generation Z consumers embrace the same strong desire for homeownership as their parents.

For For many, the path forward is now clearer. And the smart move is not to wait, but to act on it the possibilities that exist today. Real estate rarely rewards hesitation; it rewards participation.

The math is correct again. Affordability has improved. The competition has cooled down. The stock is growing. Prices are stable. The rates are stable. These are not warning signs – they are green lights. A steady, sustainable recovery is underway, and those who are are taking steps advancing early will benefit the most.