JJ Spaun – Spaun’s breakthrough season in 2025 continued all the way to the finish, culminating in elite final results that cemented his place at the top of the TOUR. He brings a 7.9% win probability and a better than 40% chance of a top-10 finish, making him a threat to contend again.
Harry Hall – Hall finished 2025 with a productive run that showed off his putting-driven upside even as his schedule thinned late in the year. His odds point to a strong chance to stay on the leaderboard, with meaningful top-10 potential as the putter warms up.
Robert MacIntyre – MacIntyre ended the 2025 season on a high note with a late second-place finish and multiple top-20 finishes, continuing his steady climb onto the world stage. Although his chance of winning is just under 5%, his balanced profile gives him a legitimate advantage in the top 20 and top 10 in this area.
| Golfer | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Griffin | 11.9% | 35.7% | 52.3% | 69.6% |
| Russel Henley | 8.5% | 28.8% | 43.5% | 65.9% |
| JJ Spaun | 7.9% | 26.9% | 41.5% | 61.3% |
| Harry Hall | 5.1% | 20.4% | 34.5% | 54.5% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 4.9% | 19.8% | 32.6% | 53.1% |
MORE: Dimers’ internal golf rankings
Dimers’ Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets
For each tournament, we look at the golfers our model has identified with a greater chance of winning than what the sportsbook odds imply.
We’ll also highlight any notable prop and placement bets for these golfers as we spot some compelling value hidden in Dimers’ golf predictions.
Ben Griffin wins (+1900 on FanDuel)
Ben Griffin enters Sony Open elite form after taking his third victory of 2025 at the World Wide Technology Championship during last season’s FedExCup Fall run.
He is the Dimers model’s favorite to win the tournament and the only golfer with a better than 10% chance of winning, with fair odds of +740, while at FanDuel he has more than double that.
Waialae was a perfect match for Griffin’s three attempts, with all 12 career rounds tied or better, and he leads the entire field in strokes gained over the past six months, establishing himself as a clear contender in the season opener.
Griffin also gets an edge in all three seeding markets of the top 20, top 10 and top 5, for an ideal ladder game.
JJ Spaun wins (+1800 on DraftKings)
After a breakthrough 2025 win that saw him capture the US Open title, JJ Spaun returns to Waialae with unfinished business.
Last year he finished T3 at Waialae after maintaining the outright lead going into the final round, and he also recorded a solid T12 here in 2023, confirming his comfort on the layout and reinforcing the fact that there is familiarity everywhere here.
Spaun lands third in the Dimers projections with a 7.9% chance of winning, while his fair odds of +1165 are well below his best price of +1800.
After seven Top 10s last year, Spaun’s consistent ball striking and experience in Hawaii keep him firmly in contention again, providing ladder value in his placements as well.
Harry Hall wins (+3500 on FanDuel)
Englishman Harry Hall comes in rested after a busy 2025 campaign, but also three months away from the competition.
He is given the fourth best chance to win at 5.1% for fair odds of +1860, a strong lead over his best price of +3500, which implies just 2.8%.
He will be making his fourth consecutive appearance at the Sony Open after competing with a top-10 finish (best in three attempts) last year, and currently ranks seventh in the field in total strokes gained over the past six months, while second in actual strokes gained, which suits this course well.
If Hall picks up where he left off in the fall, when he finished outside the Top 20 in just three of his last 10 events, his positive attitude makes him a dangerous contender on the big greens of Waialae.
Also don’t forget about his chances of placing: he is +150 for a Top 20 finish with a probability of almost 55%.
Corey Conners (+3300 on BetMGM)
The Canadian sits just outside our Top 5 as Corey Conners prepares for his eighth appearance in Waialae.
With a 4.4% win probability according to the Dimers model, his fair odds are around +2170 at a great price and he’s gearing up for a rebound in a venue where he’s had success more often than not.
He missed the cut in 2025, which was more indicative of an uneven season than a poor fit for Waialae, as he previously finished T12 twice, along with a T11 and a T3 in his six other appearances.
Statistically he remains a strong fixture, ranking 39th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 24th off the tee with above-average driving accuracy. He also finished last season in excellent form, culminating in a T4 at the TOUR Championship.
Best props at the Sony Open in Hawaii
Because there is a lot of value in the top candidates, we highlight some other ways to use the Dimers data.
Top 20 Parlay
Three golfers are given at least a 60% chance of a place in the Top 20 – Ben Griffin, Russell Henley And JJ Spaun. Each has standalone value, with Spaun even drawing plus-money odds.
All three have shown great results here and in the past, and a three-leg parlay for all three to finish in the Top 20 pays out at +550 odds on DraftKings.
Best H2H matchup
The Dimers Head-to-Head Predictor tool allows you to simulate any match between two golfers to see how they compare over the course of the first round or the entire tournament.
Simulating our top two golfers against each other, Ben Griffin versus Russell Henley, reveals a substantial standalone advantage for Griffin (+115) over Henley (-145) over the course of the tournament.
Expert golf picks and predictions for the 2026 PGA TOUR
In addition to being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers Pros also have access to the latest golf news, golf predictions for every match, weekly golf rankings and the H2H golf matchup tool.
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