According to a tracking and analysis tool from UrbanToronto (UT), a website that covers construction development and real estate, there were 235 cranes on top of buildings in the region as of January 1. That’s a decrease of 44 cranes compared to the 279 that were on buildings at the same time last year.
The pipeline of projects continues to shrink. Developers submitted 318 new projects in 2025, up from 395 the year before. The total number of proposed homes fell from 209,490 to 171,578.
The UT also reports that the number of cranes is expected to decrease further as new projects continue to decrease.
RESCON and its builders are not surprised by these figures. They support what we’ve been seeing for a while. Housing projects are being put on hold and many in the workforce are being laid off.
The prospects are bleak
The prospects are not good. The number of new housing starts is down 58 percent year-over-year in the city of Toronto, and 29 percent year-over-year in all Ontario metropolitan areas except Toronto.
Job losses in the sector are already in the tens of thousands. More people will lose their jobs in the coming months as homebuilders face difficult but unavoidable choices.
Reports indicate that unless significant further public sector action is taken to support the industry and reverse ever-increasing job losses, Ontario is likely to see a drop in GDP of as much as 1.5 to 2.5 per cent by 2026, directly linked to the situation affecting the housing sector.
The coming years could be even worse, with about 30,000 new home sales, starts and completions expected in Ontario each year, according to the Canadian Center for Economic Analysis (CANCEA). This means that the province will fall well short of the target of 1.5 million new homes in 2031.
CANCEA’s modeling indicates continued weakness in Ontario housing activity over roughly the next four to five years, with starts and completions significantly below the norms of the past decade.
The short-term consequence, CANCEA notes, is that an average of about 35,000 residential workers in Ontario could be displaced, with the displacement heavily skewed toward younger workers but with a significant share among older workers, increasing the risk of permanent skills loss.
Behavioral modeling conducted by CANCEA indicates a deep and persistent slowdown. On an annual basis, the projected scenario implies approximately 36 percent fewer starts and 39 percent fewer completions than the 10-year average.
Taxes are too high
To solve the problem, we need to lower the tax burden on new homes so builders can build homes that people can afford. Taxes, fees and charges are too high, putting homeownership out of reach.
Taxes currently amount to 36 percent of the purchase price of a home. The federal and provincial governments are in the process of offering some sales tax relief to first-time homebuyers, but the breaks should be extended to all new home buyers.
Runaway Development Charges (DCs), which have risen dramatically over the past two decades, must also be reduced. DCs for a single-family home in Toronto cost about $125,000, while the average apartment costs $130,200 in DCs.
The approval process should also be digitized and simplified to speed up housing construction. In Toronto, it can take two years from the time a developer submits a building application before receiving approval.
In the meantime, governments must better coordinate their efforts on social housing and homelessness. They are both crucial for the future, so we need to have strong objectives and a synchronized approach.
Finally, governments should focus their efforts on working with the private sector to solve the sector’s problems, as private builders account for 90 percent of housing supply.
A healthy housing sector is critical to Ontario’s economic success. The impact that the industry has on other sectors is enormous.
RESCON members directly employ more than 100,000 workers in Ontario alone, and more than 200,000 if indirect industries are included. The total size of the residential construction sector as an employer is much larger than that of other sectors, such as the steel, aluminum and automotive industries.
There’s no time to lose. Solutions must be put in place now before it is too late. There is no good reason to procrastinate.
#Repairs #required #late #Canadian #real #estate #magazine