Sony Open betting guide: 4 picks our betting expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring tips from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A veteran golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 Sony Open, which kicks off Thursday in Hawaii. In addition to Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that offers both free-to-play and daily fantasy golf competitions where you can win money and prizes at every round and tournament.

Here we go again! The 2026 PGA Tour season begins this week at Waialae Country Club on the island of Oahu. It’s the Sony Open, which serves as golf’s “opening day” and kicks off as usual in the Aloha State.

Due to drought-like conditions in West Maui, The Sentry, normally the very first event of the new year and season, was canceled in October. The good news is that the Plantation Course in Kapalua has started again and conditions appear to be favorable again. The bad news is that there are rumors that the Tour may do away with the two-week Hawaiian swing in the future – in an effort to further prevent crossover with the NFL. Let’s hope they don’t. I don’t think I’m the only one who says it’s always a great welcome to the new season, battling the chilly temperatures in the United States and seeing the majestic, crystal blue ocean waters of Hawaii in the backdrop of the first wave action of the season. If the Masters always feels like it heralds the spring season, for me the Hawaii tournaments signify new beginnings, warmth, anticipation, excitement, and that golf is back from its hibernation. I’m not sure La Quinta, California, and the American Express tournament can stop that.

But that’s a conversation for another day. Golf in Hawaii is just around the corner in 2026 and it’s time to pick winners again. We started last season with a winner with Hideki Matsuyama at The Sentry and last year we ended with winners with Tommy Fleetwood at the Tour Championship and Matsuyama again at the Hero World Challenge in December.

Waialae Country Club is a short, narrow, tree-lined par-70 golf course that favors accuracy over distance. It’s really the opposite of what the players normally encounter the week before in Kapalua. It reminds me a bit of the trip from Augusta National to Harbor Town in April. Like Harbor Town, Waialae is a wall-to-wall Bermudagrass course on the coast that can be largely influenced by wind and also has smaller-than-average greens. The forecast calls for typical Hawaiian temperatures this week in the low 70s and winds of 10 to 20 mph. That’s not brutally windy but certainly enough to factor into this week’s storyline.

As for skills, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass). I looked at Birdies of Better Gained, Scrambling, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation Gained, 400-500 yard Par 4s and Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards.

The course format is very strong at the Sony Open, meaning that players who tend to do well here do so regularly. Especially if we get some wind, as we expect this week, we’ll see a lot of the same names and same types of players populating the Sony Open leaderboards. This also extends to the associated courses. Shorter, often windswept coastal locations, Bermudagrass based courses like the aforementioned Harbor Town, home of the RBC Heritage – Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Webb Simpson – these guys have had great success at both tournaments. Let’s also add Sea Island (RSM Classic), Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge) and El Camaleon to the Riviera Maya, not far from Cancun, Mexico, where the World Wide Technologies Championship was held from 2007 to 2022.

Ben Griffin (18-1)

2025 was a coming-out party for Griffin, with three wins and a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team. One of those wins came at Colonial. He has also finished 12th here at the Sony and has previously finished eighth and 15th during the RSM Classic. He ranks particularly high in this field over the last 24 rounds in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling and on the 400-450 yard Par 4s. He also arrives in good form, having finished 11-9-12-10-2-1 in his last six starts.

Outsider McNealy (30-1)

McNealy earned his first-ever PGA Tour victory in November 2024 at the RSM Classic at Sea Island. A few months ago, he was unable to defend his title as he welcomed his first child into the world. I actually like this situation, also known as the “diaper factor.” We have seen golfers in the past achieve great success after the birth of a child, as it often provides a new perspective, reassurance, happiness and renewed focus to provide for the family. McNealy also checks a lot of the traditional boxes, having previously finished in the top 10 here, twice in the top 20 at Colonial, twice in the top 5 at Harbor Town and three consecutive top-12 finishes at El Camaleon.

Chris Kirk (48-1)

The veteran Georgia Bulldog is a Sony Open classic, finishing in the top 5 here three times in his career. He has multiple top-10 finishes on each of the correlated courses and has victories at both Sea Island and Colonial. Like Griffin, Kirk also arrives in good form, having finished the 2025 regular season with 14th, fifth and ninth-place finishes. Over the past 24 rounds, Kirk has been excellent in approach, with his wedge play, on the Par 4s, and he ranks 12th in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass).

Seamus Power (110-1)

I also decided to throw a longshot into the mix – and you might also want to try this for a top-20 finish or something like that – but Power checks many of the same boxes as the cheaper players, he just doesn’t have nearly the same pedigree. He is struggling with nasty injuries. However, as a Las Vegas resident, I’ve heard he’s feeling completely healthy heading into the new campaign. Power’s last Tour victory came at the Bermuda Championship, another windy, shorter course on the coast. This type of court suits his game. He finished 11th in Bermuda two months ago and followed that with a seventh-place finish at the RSM Classic, where he also finished in the top five twice. He is very accurate off the tee and excellent with the wedges. He has even finished third here at Sony in the past and has had top 10 finishes at both Harbor Town and El Camaleon.

Which Chirp Golf Players Choose

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