But that does not mean that the concerns of recent weeks are not justified. I guess my main takeaway is that there isn’t really a single, easy-to-diagnose problem. I don’t think there are any major problems either (well, maybe one I’ll get to later) – the January transfer window is over and no one really seems to think new players are the solution and I think that’s absolutely right.
Instead of a big elephant in the room, we have a few little bugs laying eggs in our brains and hatching into a volcano of fear. Here are some things that I think have caused the Arsenal engine to sputter a bit in recent weeks.
Lack of chemistry
Arsenal have signed eight senior players this summer. Even if we downgrade Norgaard and Kepa slightly to barely involved players, that’s still six players Arsenal are integrating into their team. Three attackers, two defenders and a midfielder. In defense and midfield I think these are micro problems. The first choice behind the four players hasn’t really changed since last season, with Hincapie and Mosquera providing valuable backup and rotation.
In midfield, Thomas Partey has been replaced by the superior Martin Zubimendi (although I think there is a wrinkle in midfield that I will get to later). In attack, Bukayo Saka was really the only untouchable, I think Kai Havertz would also have fallen into that category if he was fit. Arsenal piled the game on by signing Madueke, Eze and Gyokeres.
My own view is that the club probably only needed to buy one of Eze or Madueke, not least because Nwaneri’s route into the first team was blocked during the deal to sign both. I guess there is such a thing as too much depth and too much choice, and I always felt like the club just crossed the line into ‘too many chefs’.
The emotional quadruple substitution against Manchester United, which saw three fundamental attacking substitutions, with Eze, Merino and Gyokeres taking the place of Jesus, Odegaard and Zubimendi, was not well thought out. It revealed a manager who still doesn’t really know who and what his best attacking combinations are and when you have so many players it can weaken the partnership and chemistry.
Squad building is a very fine balance, you need options, but too many options can confuse things and I honestly think Arsenal are closer to the latter. I think that is nicely highlighted by the spell the team had in October and November when Madueke, Odegaard, Gyokeres and Martinelli were all missing.
Arsenal opted for Merino to support Saka, Trossard and Eze ahead of him. It certainly wasn’t perfect; but Arsenal looked stable (although often unexciting) until… they got to the Sunderland game in early November and ran out of juice due to a lack of options. It’s a cord. Spud, it’s a damn cord.
Fatigue
I have labeled this section fatigue but I cannot be absolutely certain that this is what we see in certain cases. Part of my suspicion comes from the form of everyone else: before Arsenal recently drew two games and lost one in the Premier League, Manchester City played three games in a row and then lost one. Erling Haaland had not scored an open goal in ten games before scoring against Galatasaray on Wednesday.
The happy thing about Arsenal’s wobble is that everyone wobbles. The Premier League is a big old pile of jelly and I suspect the ever-increasing schedule (City played in the Club World Cup in the summer) and the increasing quality of Premier League teams outside the ‘elite’ are making it more difficult.
I see signs of fatigue at Arsenal because they have started conceding goals. What is special is the manner and timing of the goals conceded. Four Arsenal games ended 3-2 in January (three times in favor of the Gunners). Four 3-2’s, two 0-0’s, a 3-1 and a 4-1. We’ve seen the team drop out a lot more this month.
Many of the goals conceded are either unusually big mistakes (Gabriel at Bournemouth or Zubimendi against Manchester United) or they come just after Arsenal have scored, which to me gives the impression that the players are dropping out. In the 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, Arsenal never had any difficulty in conceding.
At Bournemouth, when the match should have finished 3-1, the Gunners conceded five minutes after securing a two-goal lead. At Chelsea in the Carabao Cup they conceded a 2-0 lead eight minutes after and a 3-1 lead twelve minutes after, putting Chelsea back into a draw where they rarely threatened.
At Inter, they were back in the lead within eight minutes of taking the lead, before regaining control of the match and winning 3-1. Against United they conceded a 1-0 lead eight minutes after and an equalizer at 2-2 three minutes after. When the game starts to turn in Arsenal’s favor, they continue to fall asleep at the wheel.
It could be psychological, but that doesn’t really explain why it doesn’t happen at 0-0. But whether it’s due to fatigue – physical and mental – or the yips, Arsenal’s games are becoming increasingly chaotic and I don’t watch Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal and associate the 3-2 scoreline with that.
Variance
I think I can summarize this in one paragraph. Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka are two of Arsenal’s most important players and are both playing below their best level. Perhaps Arsenal’s defensive stinginess early in the season was unsustainable at the pace we saw in the autumn when allowing shots on target felt like a personal affront. Intangibles that might have been a bit generous a few months ago are now cashing in on those chips and the wind has turned against the team a bit.
Attacker misery
There may be reasons why Saka, Odegaard and Trossard’s form declines at the same time. I wonder if Odegaard is getting a bit lost in a much more fluid midfield this season and if his role is undefined. Partey’s immobility was frustrating, but in some ways defined Odegaard’s role, while the current interpretation is more flexible.
Declan Rice’s touch and pass numbers have skyrocketed this season. The midfield has changed and I’m not sure Odegaard is completely attuned to the new rhythm. But I think there’s a pretty simple problem. Arsenal do not have a reliable striker. It is a very important role, not only in terms of putting the ball between the posts, but also as a connective tissue for the team.
Gyokeres can drive the ball very hard towards the goal, but has struggled with almost every other facet of being an elite striker thus far. Gabriel Jesus was always a bit inconsistent and frustrating, and three knee surgeries were unlikely to solve that particular problem for him.
Kai Havertz is by far Arsenal’s best answer at centre-forward, simply because he is a very good footballer (even if he is not a dead-eyed goalscorer). He connects Arsenal’s play reliably and consistently (and I don’t think this is a case of an injured player getting better by proxy, I’m sure I’ve always felt that way), but it remains to be seen what he’s capable of and by when due to his injury problems.
Unfortunately, there is no great solution if you don’t have a reliable player as a centre-forward. There’s only so much tactical jiggery pokery a coach can do to make up for that. You can’t win a Grand Prix in a Ford Fiesta. It is also unlikely that the solution to this problem will appear on the market anytime soon.
I still think Arsenal are more than good enough to win the league. I suspect they will get there by tightening up on their defensive shortcomings, which seems to be quite easily within the team’s gift. That outage is the biggest outlier in recent weeks. Then Arsenal will probably need one of their strikers to step up a bit to push the team over the line for good.
#Small #insects