Analysts across the board have highlighted the metal’s evolving role, from a traditional monetary hedge to a crucial mineral essential to the global energy and digital transition.The price breakout, both internationally and on the MCX in India, is being interpreted by market participants as more than just a speculative spike, but rather as the result of tightening fundamentals, rising financial interest and a structurally changing supply landscape.
Record rally builds on global tailwinds and macro shifts
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst – Currencies & Commodities, at Reliance Securities, silver rose almost 3% towards $99/oz, driven by a weakening dollar and strong safe-haven demand.
“Silver rose nearly 3% toward $99/oz to reach new all-time highs as a weakening dollar provided additional support to the rally in precious metals,” he said. Trivedi added that investors are once again focusing on real assets as the dollar weakens due to “shifting geopolitical dynamics between the US and Europe over Greenland and growing concerns that Europe could weaponize its substantial US asset holdings.”
In addition, Trivedi pointed to expectations of a loose monetary policy in the US.
“The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week… although markets continue to price in two possible rate cuts later this year,” he noted. With President Donald Trump expected to soon appoint a new Fed chairman, a “more forgiving appointee.” [is] This is likely to reinforce expectations for further easing.”
Technical indicators reinforce the bullish outlook
Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R echoed the bullish sentiment after COMEX silver has now surged above $100 and registered an all-time high.
In his note, he wrote: “Silver continues to decisively outperform… Increasing demand for green energy, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, electronics and chronic supply shortages create a structurally tight market. Silver’s relative strength versus gold reflects this powerful convergence of investment and industrial demand.”
Ponmudi characterized the rally as fundamentally driven and not speculative. “Supply constraints – especially acute in silver – continued central bank buying, rising industrial consumption and persistent geopolitical and macro risks are the core pillars of the ongoing super cycle,” he stated.
He further noted that supportive liquidity and tailwind inflation are expected to fuel upside potential in the medium to long term. “Silver in particular retains strong relative performance potential, while gold continues to serve as the most reliable hedge against macro uncertainty,” he concluded.
Price Action: COMEX Reaches $103.26, MCX Eyes Rs 3.45-3.50 Lakh Levels
According to the latest trading data, COMEX Silver last traded at $103.26 per ounce, marking a jump of 7.15%, compared to a 1.42% gain in COMEX Gold. Ponmudi’s view notes that:
“COMEX Silver remains high near $101+ supporting momentum within a strong rising channel… Holding above the $100-$101 region keeps the structure aligned for further upside towards $105-$110.”
On the domestic front, MCX Silver is currently trading in the range of Rs 3,30,000 – Rs 3,40,000/kg. Ponmudi added that:
“A breakout above Rs 3,45,000 – Rs 3,50,000 could accelerate prices towards Rs 3,60,000 – Rs 3,80,000 and above, supported by supply tightness and industrial tailwinds.”
Jigar Trivedi also pointed to strong retail demand and geopolitical supply bottlenecks as additional catalysts. “The rally in silver has also been fueled by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying, as well as China’s tightening export controls,” he wrote.
He noted that the positive global momentum is likely to reflect on Indian stock markets. “MCX Silver March prices are likely to rise to Rs 3,35,000/kg, coupled with positive undertones in global markets,” he said.
Silver enters a volatile, asymmetric and potentially historic phase: Kotak report
A recent report from Kotak Securities highlights the shift in silver’s nature from a monetary metal to a crucial mineral, now indispensable in green energy and solar power, electrical infrastructure, electronics and semiconductors, electric vehicles and battery ecosystems, and defense and advanced technologies.
Kotak analysts emphasize that chronic supply shortages have persisted for five consecutive years. “Demand is exceeding mine supply, requiring the depletion of surface reserves,” the report said, noting that the supply of silver is “inelastic” and difficult to scale quickly.
The report further notes that “governments are directly and indirectly hoarding silver,” while miners face liquidity stress and gold banks are constrained by Basel NSFR leverage standards.
In terms of future supply, Kotak points out that “large private investors – the Whales – have accumulated massive physical silver at much lower prices… Would they dump the supply at $100? Highly unlikely.”
The company notes that only a systemic stock market crash could derail silver prices in the short term, adding that such a dip would likely be “sharp and short-lived, and followed by aggressive rebounds.”
With silver breaching the $100/oz mark on COMEX and domestic prices surging towards Rs 3.5 lakh/kg, analysts suggest that a rare alignment of macroeconomic, industrial and monetary factors could continue to support the metal’s strength. Whether this rally continues or consolidates, market participants are now navigating a fundamentally reshaped silver story – one characterized by tight supply, rising strategic value, and an expanding demand horizon.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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