Should the NFL schedule structure be adjusted?

In terms of divisional races and conference participants, the field is wide open in both the AFC and NFC.

There are multiple teams in seven of the eight divisions with a winning percentage of .500 or better. The only race that can be considered “done” is the NFC East, with the Eagles maintaining a three-and-a-half game lead.

Outside of that, every other division is separated by two or less in the loss column.

The majority of these races come from unexpected competitors. Teams like the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears were not expected to top the division standings in November.

Especially after they both finished in last place in the AFC East and NFC North respectively.

The Indianapolis Colts finished under .500 last year, but are now battling the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC.

Even for the outside teams looking at their division, like the Carolina Panthers or Seattle Seahawks, they have exceeded expectations so far.

At the same time, however, the sudden change in the rankings means that the expected winners have not played up to expectations.

How did this come about? There were no significant changes to the roster of these Super Bowl contenders. In terms of team health, there were no significant losses for either side that would justify losing the division title.

So who is to blame or to thank for the shakeup in the standings?

To answer this, let’s take a look at how the regular season matchups are determined prior to each season.

The NFL schedule is designed so that each team plays six division games and games against all four teams from one division in both its own and opposing conferences. The conference is selected on a three- and four-year rotation.

The remaining three matches are based on the team’s results in the previous season, comparing teams against each other based on where they finished in the standings.

For example, let’s look at the Eagles’ schedule. In 2025, the NFC East played against the NFC North and the AFC West. In 2024the combined record of these eight teams was 70–66.

Because the Eagles won the division in 2024, their remaining three games were against other division winners last year.

This brought them into contact with the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

So out of their eleven games, not including division play, they came in the scheduled year against nine teams above .500 the year before.

This gave the Philadelphia Eagles the fourth heaviest planning before the year.

On the other end of the spectrum, the New England Patriots entered the year with the third-easiest schedule in football.

The AFC East divisional matchups for 2025 were AFC North and NFC South. In 2024the combined record of these eight teams was 62–74.

So, combined with the Patriots remaining three games Since it was against the other last-place players in their division (Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants), New England would only play four division games against teams above .500.

Now a team’s record from the previous season is a benchmark that should only be used up to week one. After that point, the previous results become a moot point.

For the Eagles and Patriots, however, the actual talent of the teams on their schedule made the division even more lopsided.

All of teams previously above .500 remained that way into 2025, in addition to the boost from the Bears who started the year 7-3.

For the Patriotshowever, they only had to face three teams above .500 instead of four.

This isn’t a one-time opportunity, however, as the structure of the NFL schedule has contributed to the parity at the top of the NFL standings.

For example, the Indianapolis Colts, who compete with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC, were ranked 25th in terms of the strength of the scheme.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, two games behind the Colts, were one spot ahead of the Colts in the same metric.

And the Carolina Panthers, after a 6-5 start, were ranked 28th by their opponents’ record.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions entered the year with the second-toughest schedule. At 6-4 in their first ten games, they currently sit third in the NFC North.

The entire NFC North all ranked in the top seven toughest schedules, which has contributed to the logjam of that division overall.

For AFC West, they were all in the middle of the pack due to strength of schedule. However, the Denver Broncos (15th in SOS) have appreciated the slightly easier schedule than the Kansas City Chiefs as they sit atop the division.

Ultimately, there’s a reason the NFL follows the motto of “every Sunday.” There are no FBS matchups in the NFL, so even for the teams with the worst SOS, a win on Sunday will still be difficult.

However, this season may prove that the NFL’s schedule structure could use some adjustments.

The problem doesn’t necessarily lie in the three games against another opponent in the same divisional bracket in 2024.

Instead, most of the schedule differences come from the randomness of how competitive the divisions are for next year’s games.

The combination of the Eagles’ three extra games against first-place players and the unfortunate draw of two talented divisions made for the toughest schedule in 2025.

The Patriots’ favorable draw with their last-place finishers gave them a much easier launching pad for their championship window.

Instead of rotating opponents in the division, perhaps the available 11 games could be divided evenly by ranking teams 1 through 32 and ensuring that each team reaches a certain threshold of “points” based on the rankings of their opponents.

It may be impossible to give everyone the same number in just 11 games. However, this is where the rankings could be included, with four scoring thresholds given based on their finish the year before.

Regardless of this armchair pundit rule change proposal, the lesson to be learned is that you should take some of football’s top records with a pinch of salt.

While there are no wins to scoff at, there may at least be some hesitation against teams with an easier schedule when the postseason arrives.

Not only could the matchups be more than what the teams were exposed to all year, but the sudden success of these teams also leads to a roster with no playoff experience.

Depending on how the playoffs go, this could lead to more road teams and higher seeds advancing further in the playoffs. Even though it is the teams that failed to live up to their high expectations in the regular competition.