Short-term Bitcoin holders are hurting as the bear market deepens

Losses for short-term holders of Bitcoin are mounting as assets fall back below $70,000.

The short-term holder cost basis is around $94,200, and with BTC back around $67,000, the price difference has now reached 28%, they said.

“So we can roughly estimate an average unrealized loss of about 28% for STHs, if we simplify things.”

No correction, but bear market

The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price has been trading below the STH cost basis for four months, “marking the longest period of stress yet.”

They added that this was unusual for this cycle and “suggests that the current correction is increasingly looking like a bear market.” During the two previous bear markets, this situation lasted just over a year, the analyst warned.

Short-term investors continue to suffer as this correction continues.

📊 With an STH cost base of approximately $94,200 and BTC of $68,000, the price difference has now reached 28%.

So, simplifying things, we can roughly estimate an average unrealized loss of about 28% for STHs.

But that’s not… pic.twitter.com/MnLcbAgHCx

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 11, 2026

A “lack of fresh capital” strengthens bear conditions, confirmed CryptoQuant on Wednesday, with analysts saying new investor inflows have turned negative.

“The sell-off is not absorbed by new capital. In bull markets, declines attract capital at an increasingly rapid rate. In early bear markets, weakness leads to pullback.”

Analyst ‘Daan Trades Crypto’ said that after temporarily holding the .382 Fibonacci retracement, the price finally broke through and broke the pattern of this cycle.

You might also like:

“The .618 Fibonacci retracement level has historically always been an important level to watch during larger drawdowns,” he added. This level is currently around $57,800 and could be the next support zone.

Bitfinex analysts were slightly more positive, noting that the supply from long-term Bitcoin holders has increased after months of distribution and is now back to almost 14.3 million BTC.

“If this build-up continues, it supports the view that this is a mid-cycle reset, and not a definitive top,” they said.

The supply from long-term Bitcoin holders has increased after months of distribution, and is now back near 14.3 million BTC.

Previous cycles led to new highs in LTH supply $BTC by about 3 to 4 months.

If this build-up continues, it supports the view that this is a mid-cycle reset and not a final top. pic.twitter.com/EJ0Q87vp7d

— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) February 11, 2026

Bitcoin drops to $66,000

Short-term holders’ losses are even worse, with Bitcoin collapsing again to just under $66,000 in late trading on Wednesday. The asset was trading at $67,200 in Asia on Thursday morning, but the path of least resistance remains low.

Ether failed to stay above the psychological level of $2,000 and crashed back to $1,950 on Wednesday, but failed to regain it at the time of writing. ETH is now trading at the March 2025 low, but has not yet fallen as low as the April 2025 crash.