Ukrainian Air Force
As diplomats and other country representatives continue to explore paths toward peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, one reality remains inescapable: No peace deal can last without credible security guarantees, and nowhere are those guarantees more essential than in the air.
Airspace violations are not abstract hypotheses. They are tangible, destabilizing acts of aggression. Russia’s recent incursions into the sovereign airspace of Poland and Estonia with warplanes were deliberate border violations. The quickest way for Russia to undermine an agreement with Ukraine would be to send a bomber, fighter jet, cruise missile or drone over Ukraine’s borders after a “peace settlement” has been reached.
This is why credible air force guarantees are central to any agreement designed to end the war while securing Ukraine’s sovereignty and maintaining stability in Europe.
The lessons of the past three and a half years are clear. Russia has relied heavily on long-range missiles, Iranian-supplied (then Russian-produced) cruise missiles/drones, and airspace intimidation to Terrorizing Ukrainian cities and undermine the morale of citizens. Lacking robust air protection, Ukraine has been forced into a war of attrition similar to the worst of World War I. To prevent a repeat of this outcome, a serious discussion is needed about what ‘aerial security guarantees’ mean in practice.
The three pillars of air force guarantees
There are three pillars to guarantee Ukraine’s continued security from above: 1) a robust air defense umbrella, 2) a modern and sufficient Ukrainian air force, and 3) visible allied support. Together these can create a layered system of deterrence, protection and stability.
1. A rugged air defense umbrella
The first line of defense must be an integrated air defense network capable of detecting, tracking and intercepting enemy threats at multiple altitudes and ranges. This means that modern surface-to-air missile systems (SAM), anti-aircraft artillery (AAA), air defense fighters and associated sensors have merged into a common operational picture. Ukraine has already shown ingenuity in operating Western systems such as Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, F-16 and Mirage fighter jets in addition to Soviet-era equipment. But to secure the country’s future, these systems must be expanded, modernized and connected into a seamless web of defense spanning major cities, military bases and critical infrastructure.
Ground defense should be directly linked to the Ukrainian air force, ensuring smooth handovers between missile batteries and fighter aircraft. This integration of air and ground assets – supported by robust electronic warfare defense systems – with air defense aircraft, both Ukrainian and from other supporting land air defense aircraft, will make it much more difficult for Russia to exploit coverage seams.
2. A modern Ukrainian fighting force
The second pillar is a capable and sufficient Ukrainian military force. Ukraine’s emerging F-16 and Mirage fighter force represents a turning point from Russia’s Cold War hardware, but the fleet is far too small to counter the threat posed by Russia’s air force and missile arsenal. A credible air force guarantee requires sufficient aircraft operated by Ukraine itself.
Ukraine recently signed memoranda to purchase significant numbers of Rafale and JAS 39 Gripen fighters. next 10-15 years. The numbers are over 100 each, but the need is now. Current plans call for the transfer of approximately 85 F-16s from European allies – enough to support continued combat air patrols, respond to incursions and, if necessary, attack the launch points of Russian hostile actions. But they will also need modern long-range missiles, weapons integration, AESA radar upgrades and advanced electronic warfare capabilities. Without this capability, Ukraine will remain reactive in the short term, always working hard to catch up to Russian salvos. This – along with the F-16 improvements mentioned above – will allow Ukraine to establish a persistent presence on its own territory and provide rapid, highly effective retaliation options.
Numbers are important. A handful of fighters cannot cover a country the size of Ukraine. But a force in the triple digits – supplemented by Western training, maintenance support, modernization upgrades and supported by additional allied aircraft – would send a clear message to Moscow that Ukrainian airspace is not conducive to their terror.
3. Allied support
Air power guarantees require allied presence. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission provides a ready-made model that can be emulated by rotating allied squadrons over Ukrainian airspace or along its borders, both to reassure Ukraine and deter Russia.
The air and ground-based air defense systems of the European nations operated in Ukraine by the countries that supply them are crucial for ensuring a security guarantee regime. These assets could protect peacekeeping coalition forces monitoring the agreement on the ground; humanitarian forces and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in reconstruction; and the Ukrainian civilian population. While this could potentially be achieved from Poland or Romania, allied forces operating within Ukraine’s borders would provide a greater deterrent effect.
A key part of the air defense portion of Ukraine’s security guarantee would be the creation of a combined integrated command and control structure that could unify Ukraine’s ground air defense with the Ukrainian Air Force, along with the international air force that provides the allied air presence. This is the linchpin that ties all these crucial elements together to respond coherently and effectively to any Russian violation.
European countries can provide this support without Ukraine joining the NATO alliance. Instead, NATO would extend deterrence and assurance in practice: if Russia violates Ukrainian sovereignty in the air, allied aircraft and air defenses on the ground would be ready to respond. Such a visible presence – shared by American, British, Polish, French and other NATO allies – would make clear that violations are not simply attacks on Ukraine, but a challenge to a collective commitment to Ukraine’s security.
Combined, these three pillars would give real teeth to any security guarantee, ensuring that Ukrainian airspace does not remain vulnerable to the weapons Russia uses to terrorize the Ukrainian people.
Hostile actions and rules of engagement
Warranties are only important if they are enforceable. That requires clear definitions of what constitutes a hostile act, and equally clear Rules of Engagement (ROE) to guide the response.
Hostile acts should at least be explicitly defined as:
- Any Russian military aircraft entering Ukrainian sovereign airspace without permission.
- Any Russian missile or drone launched into Ukraine from Russian or Belarusian territory.
- Any electronic warfare aimed at damaging or blinding Ukrainian air defenses.
Associated rules of engagement can then be codified as follows:
- Immediate interception and escort of unauthorized Russian aircraft from Ukrainian airspace.
- Authorization for a lethal strike if a Russian aircraft, missile or drone poses an immediate threat.
- Establishment of ‘tripwires’: A single violation triggers warnings and diplomatic protest, while repeated violations trigger an automatic kinetic response.
Definitions and rules should leave no ambiguity. Russia must know exactly which actions cross the line and what consequences to expect. Ambiguity leads to miscalculations; clarity scares them.
Consequences that deter
Airpower guarantees fail when they amount to empty threats. Credibility rests on consequences. Russia’s history makes it clear that Russians only respect power.
If Russia sends a bomber or fighter plane over the Ukrainian border, that plane is not allowed to return. If Russia fires missiles following a ceasefire, the launch sites and associated command and control nodes should become targets for rapid retaliation and elimination. If electronic warfare units attempt to disrupt Ukrainian defenses, those units must be neutralized quickly.
Such consequences are not about escalation. The point is to restore deterrence and provide a guarantee of security by ensuring that violations are too costly to repeat. If this does not happen, Russia will endlessly test the limits and water down any agreement until it collapses.
Why air power is central
Guarantees for air power are not a peripheral issue. They are crucial to the possibility of lasting peace for three reasons:
- Deterrence. Russia must know that violations will be dealt with immediately and decisively. The speed and range of air power make it ideally suited to respond in real time.
- Protection. Ukraine must protect its cities, infrastructure and troops from renewed bombing. Only layered air defense – which can have both lethal and non-lethal effects – can provide that shield.
- Stability. Without credible air guarantees, any settlement risks falling apart as Russia tests Ukrainian airspace. With them, diplomacy has a chance of success.
Simply put, air power guarantees peace on terms that prevent Moscow from dictating terms through coercion.
The bottom line
Ultimately, aerial security assurances aren’t just about hardware. They are about credibility.
If Ukraine’s airspace is defended by robust, integrated air defenses, if its combat forces are expanded to credible numbers, and if allied aircraft and air defenses on the ground join in to strengthen deterrence, Russia will think twice before violating any agreement. That is the difference between a fragile lull in hostilities and the foundation of a lasting peace.
History offers too many examples of this agreements that failed because there was no deterrence. Ukraine cannot afford to repeat these mistakes. Air Force guarantees are the best way to ensure that any settlement reached is more than a piece of paper, but instead the foundation for a just and lasting peace.
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