Scottie Scheffler is on the verge of a rare Tiger Woods achievement

It turns out that the only thing better than winning is winning a lot of.

Tiger Woods knows what that feels like. Eighty-two times during his PGA Tour career, he capped off a tournament week by lifting the trophy, winning in the blink of an eye and with an enthusiasm rarely seen since.

Scottie Scheffler may still have some work to do on the “lust” part of the equation (even now, he carries his success with an understated, almost embarrassed subtlety). But as for the “winning” part of the equation? Well, he’s on a historic trajectory.

On Sunday morning, Scheffler arrives at the American Express as he often does on Sunday mornings during the golf season: as a betting favorite who emerges as the winner from Sunday afternoon. At the 54-hole mark in Palm Springs, California, Scheffler is one stroke away from Si Woo Kim’s mark, lurking after three days of the dull and spectacular play that has become his trademark. According to the snipers in Vegashe is (at worst) even money to win the entire tournament.

You don’t have to think hard now to know what a Scheffler victory would look like. Another flawless Sunday, another slow but deliberate accumulation of pars and birdies, another four or five shot lead, another post-match celebration with family.

But the truth is, this win for Scheffler would be noticeably different from the wins that came before it – because this the victory carries with it some historical significance. Should Scheffler win Sunday at the American Express, he would reach 20 career PGA Tour victories. And if he were to reach 20 career PGA Tour victories on Sunday, he would become the only one third golfer in history who reached the twenty-win milestone before his thirtieth birthday, behind only Jack Nicklaus and, yes, Tiger Woods. (These stats come to us thanks to the always razor-sharp Justin Ray.)

Scheffler would of course not be completely in ‘Woods Territory’ if he won on Sunday. By his 30th birthday, Tiger had already racked up an astonishing 46 professional victories. If Scheffler played in an event every week until his 30th birthday on June 21 and won every event, he would have just 39 wins before age 30 – still seven wins fewer than Woods.

But when you’re in the 20/30 club, you’re in rarefied air – next to perhaps the two greatest players ever. Despite his brilliance, Scheffler’s historic trajectory has remained one of the golfing world’s under-reported stories in recent years, a feat likely due to his calm style both on and off the course.

If he were to reach the 20-win mark before age 30, that conversation as we know it would be redefined – and it would start on Sunday at the American Express.