Schematic keys to watch in every 2025 NFL divisional round

• Will the Broncos be able to run on the Bills?: Denver’s rushing attack has been below average this year, especially after contact, but that could change against a bad Buffalo defense.

• How well can Caleb Williams do at extending plays?: The Bears quarterback dazzled with five big throws on throws of 2.5 seconds or longer against the Packers, but he will face another tough test against the Rams defense.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

The opening series of the 2025 NFL postseason certainly did not disappoint, with four one-score matchups and a slew of lead changes late in the games. Part of what made these wildcard games so entertaining was seeing teams test their strengths, and which side had the upper hand in key departments. For example, Drake Maye scrambling five times for 60 yards against the Chargers’ elite defense played a huge role in the Patriots’ victory over Los Angeles.

Based on both the 2025 NFL regular season and the wild card round, below is a schematic key to follow in the four upcoming divisional round showdowns.

Buffalo Bills bee Denver Broncos: Broncos rush before/after contact

The AFC’s best player opens his playoff draw against an incredibly strong opponent in the Bills. While Jos All against the Broncos’ defense is worth the price of admission alone, what may be more interesting is how Denver’s offense operates against Buffalo’s defense – especially on the ground.

This year the Broncos are ranked seventeenth^e in rushing success rate and 18^e in PFF rushing class. The team’s running back unit took a major hit when JK Dobbins suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 10, and rookie RJ Harvey has posted a 69.2 rushing grade in his place.

While Denver’s relatively average rushing attack plays a major role in the playoffs, what needs to be isolated is the work of its elite offensive line and the associated splits in the ground game. More specifically, the Broncos were sixth in yards before contact per attempt (1.5), thanks in large part to the team’s seventh-best PFF run-blocking grade. Meanwhile, Denver’s 2.5 yards after contact is tied for the worst mark in the NFL, with Harvey averaging just 2.66 yards after contact per attempt.

The Bills’ biggest concern in the playoffs is undoubtedly their run defense. Buffalo is in 30th place^e in rushing EPA per game, tied for 27^e in rushing success rate and 27^e in PFF run defense class. Alarmingly, the Bills got chipped both before and after contact and didn’t get better than 27^e in each category in yards per carry.

Buffalo’s run defense reared its ugly head against the Jaguars in the wild-card round, allowing 6.7 net yards per rush and seven explosive carries. Specifically, Jacksonville averaged 3.5 yards after contact per carry, tying the most for any wild-card team. Will Denver’s run game add yards after being hit, or will Buffalo ultimately limit gains deeper into the game?

San Francisco 49ers bee Seattle Seahawks: Brock Purdy vs. Seahawks cover 1

The 49ers and Seahawks meet for the second time in three weeks in the NFC divisional round on Saturday night. Although San Francisco now has another star behind it in George Kittle, Kyle Shanahan’s depleted team has proven it is still a force. At the same time, the 49ers will need to quickly turn the page after a Week 18 drubbing against Seattle – with the group needing to attack Cover 1 better.

In the regular season finale of these two rivals, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald threw Shanahan a bit of a curveball. Seattle has run Cover 1 just 11.5% of the time this season — the fourth-most frequent coverage — but that percentage jumped to 23.8% in Week 18, good for the Seahawks’ second-most common look behind Cover 6.

That schematic shift paid off for the Seahawks. On Cover 1, Seattle posted an overall PFF grade of 84.4 with a PFF coverage grade of 81.8. Likewise, Purdy completed 6 of 8 passes against Seattle’s Cover 1 snaps, but totaled just 24 passing yards with a PFF grade of 65.5.

All told, Macdonald’s swarming defense has shut down San Francisco’s elite offense in a way rarely seen in recent memory – with the ability to stick to receivers further down the field in man coverage being a big reason why. In fact, Purdy didn’t even attempt a pass of at least 20 yards despite posting a PFF grade of 93.6 from deep from Weeks 15 through 18.

In Kittle, the attack on San Francisco’s perimeter will become much more intense. Players like Demarcus Robinson and Kyle Juszczyk – who each posted a PFF grade above 75.6 against the Eagles in the wild-card round – will have to continue to find separation, especially if Macdonald moves to Cover 1 more often for a second time.

Houston Texans bee New England Patriots: Texas Man Run Concepts

After two upset wild-card victories, the Texans and Patriots will compete in the divisional round from Foxborough. The star attraction will be watching Drake Maye against the league’s best defense, but Houston’s suddenly grim matchup also deserves attention.

In the wild-card round, the team that finished with the highest EPA per rush wasn’t the Bills or Bears; it was actually the Texans. Indeed, Houston’s lifeless ground game witnessed a resurgence against the Steelers, yielding 5.3 net yards per rush, a 36.4% rushing success rate and three explosive carries. It’s a somewhat miraculous feat to muster that effort after playing as a bottom-four offense all season.

Man concepts in particular fueled the Texans’ great night on the ground. Houston committed Man looks on 61% of its carries and recorded a team PFF rushing grade of 77.3 and 4.8 yards per carry on those attempts. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks also each achieved a score of over 70.0 on Man-bakken.

New England’s run defense was fairly solid in 2025, with twelve^e in rushing EPA allowed per game, only 18^e in PFF run defense class. However, the Patriots have been much less effective against Man runs, which rank 27th^e with a run defense grade of 55.0. Likewise, New England has yielded 4.8 yards per carry against Man (T-27^e) with an explosive run rate of 9.3% (20^e).

Even on a night when C.J. Stroud struggled to take care of the ball, the Texans’ rushing attack acted as a lifeline, helping Houston move down the field and string together longer possessions. With Nico Collins’ status for Sunday questionable after a concussion, it’s reasonable to expect an equally heavy dose of Man runs against the Patriots. How well New England can limit those shipments will be significant.

Los Angeles Rams bee Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams expand plays

In what looks to be an incredible matchup, the Rams head to frigid Chicago to take on the upstart Bears near the end of the divisional round. Los Angeles’ offense should be given some wiggle room with Chicago’s lackluster defense, putting a much heavier burden on the Bears’ offense. Maybe that’s just how Caleb Williams – and his ability to deliver when he holds the ball – wants it.

Williams performed admirably in his first-ever playoff start, earning an overall PFF grade of 77.3 while leading the Bears to his seventh fourth-quarter comeback of the season. As usual, part of what led to that effort was Williams making magic happen on low-percentage opportunities, especially when the play broke down — like his fourth-and-8 throws when he fell away to Rome Odunze with just over five minutes to go.

For further context, Williams produced an overall PFF grade of 77.1 with a PFF grade of 75.6 on throws of 2.5 seconds or longer against the Packers, with five of his six big throws coming in those situations. That continued his excellence when holding the ball all season, as his overall grade of 78.9 for such dropbacks is ninth among qualifiers. Additionally, Williams’ 32 big throws on longer passes rank second in that group, and his PFF rushing grade of 91.9 is the best, showing how deadly he is when given enough time.

On the other hand, the Rams’ defense has been quite effective in allowing quarterbacks to take more time to clear passes. With throws over 2.5 seconds, Los Angeles ranks eighth in both EPA per play and yards allowed per play, while also having 11 slots.^e in PFF coverage ratio. However, the Rams have yielded the fourth-most first downs on longer passing plays (105).

Even against a defense that ranks fourth in total pressure, Williams should still have plenty of snaps where he gets more time; after all, his 65.0% dropback rate, taking at least 2.5 seconds to throw, is the third-highest in football. To what extent the former No. 1 overall pick can create when he’s holding the ball could determine who reaches the NFC Championship.