The net profit is expected to be in a wide range of RS 19,576 crore to RS 16,530 Crore according to estimates given by 5 brokers. In these four brokers, a flat-15% growth has estimated on an annual basis, while a decrease of 3% is expected.
NII estimates vary between RS 40,520 Crore and RS 42,592 Crore and NIMS fall to 2.86%-2.9%, a decrease of 13-35 BPS QoQ.
The estimates of Emkay Research, IIFL Capital, Nomura, Nuvama Institutional Equits and Pabhudas Lilladher Capital (PL Capital) have been taken in consideration. This is what they hold on to the next XX statistics:
1) Pat
– Emkay estimates Pat on RS 18.128 Crore, an increase of 6.4% yoj and a decrease of 2.8% QoQ.
– IIFL expects Pat 3% JoJ and 11% QOQ to fall to RS 16,530 Crore.
– Nomura pins pat on RS 17,000 crore, flat yoj but down 9% qoq.
– Nuvama estimates Pat on RS 17,180 Crore, an increase of only 0.8% yoj and a decrease of 7.9% QoQ.
– Prabhudas Lilladher is the most bullish, projecting pat on RS 19,576 crore, an increase of 14.9% yo -y and 5% QoQ. Most brokers see consecutive decline in Pat, powered by lower NII and higher facilities. However, YOJ’s growth remains positive for most because of a low basis and controlled credit costs.
2) NII & NIMS
So
– Emkay Research: RS 42.313 CRORE, an increase of 2.9% yoJ and a decrease of 1.1% QoQ
– IIFL Capital: RS 41,880 Crore, an increase of 2% JoJ and a decrease of 2% QoQ
– Nomura: RS 40,520 Crore, 1% JOJ and a decrease of 5% QoQ
– Nuvama: RS 41.060 Crore, a decrease of 0.2% yoj and a decrease of 4% QoQ
– PL Capital: RS 42.592 CRORE, an increase of 3.6% yoj and a decrease of 0.4% qoq
Nims
– Nomura: 2.9%, Down 35 BPS Yoy and Down 13 BPS QoQ
– Nuvama: 2.87%, Down 35 BPS Yoy and Down 13 BPS QoQ
– PL Capital: 2.86%, Down 19 BPS Yoy and Down 2bps QoQ
Nomura and Nuvama Project Sharper Redingen at NIMS due to pressure on yield and higher financing costs.
PL Capital sees a relatively modest compression of 2 BPS QOQ.
All real estate agents agree that NIM compression is an important concern, with persistent cost pressure and damped credit growth that contributes to reducing spreads.
3) Pre-Prision Operating Profit (PPOP)
– Emkay Research: RS 27.736 CRORE, an increase of 4.9% yoj and decrease 11.3% qoq
– IIFL Capital: RS 27,230 Crore, an increase of 3% yoj and a decrease of 13% QoQ
– Nomura: RS 20,390 Crore, Down 11% JoJ and Down 7% QoQ
– Nuvama: RS 26,780 Crore, an increase of 1.3% yoj and a decrease of 14.4% qoq
– PL Capital: RS 30.093 CRORE, an increase of 13.8% yoj and a decrease of 3.8% qoq
Although the growth of the YOJ remains stable for most, the decrease in the QoQ is wide based on seasonal influences and sales pressure. PL Capital expects the strongest operational performance.
4) Quality of assets
Nomura sees provisions on RS 5,170 crore while IIFL on RS 5,200 crore, 50% is rising but successively.
Nuvama projects slipping at RS 8,000 Crore, a decrease of 8% yoj and an increase of 85% QOQ.
PL Capital expects GNPA/NNPA at 1.88%/0.48%respectively, slightly higher than Q4FY25.
5) Loans and deposits
The growth of the loan was around 10-12% yoj, but flat up to qoq:
-Nomura: RS 41.2 Lakh crore (+10% yoj, -1% qoq)
– Nuvama: RS 41.9 Lakh Crore ( +11.8% JoJ, +0.7% QoQ)
– PL Capital: RS 42 Lakh Crore ( +12.2% yoj, +1% QoQ)
Dumping growth between 8.7% and 11% yoj.
Nomura: RS 54.36 Lakh Crore, an increase of 11% yoj and an increase of 1% QOQ
Nuvama: RS 53.28 Lakh Crore, an increase of 8.7% yoj and fall 1% qoq
6) Credit costs
-Nomura: 0.5% (+13 BPS IY, -14 BPS Qore)
-Nuvama: 0.38% (+1 BPS YOY, -24 BPS)
-PL Capital: 0.43% (+6 BPS YOY, -19 BPS QoQ)
(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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