Do you know what kind of fantasy baseball sleeper is? Ryan Pepiot is? A layout. Now it’s up to me to prove it. Once upon a time, Itch ranked Ryan Pepiot among the top 100 prospects. There was talk when he was with the Dodgers that as a prospect he could be an asset in the making. Here I thought Pepiot was a dish you could only get in New Orleans. I need Emeril to explain to me how the Holy Trinity plus Commandment gets you Pepiot. “Not only is Pepiot a blonde roux with a mirepoix, he’s also the Chief who leads Treme’s marching band. Bam!” Okay, that’s the extent of my Ahlins speech. Okay, one more side note: It’s hilarious that Emeril made a name for himself in New Orleans and that he has an insanely thick Masshole accent. Just one of the wilder mixes. Back to Pepiot: It’s always weird when a guy is touted and then his hype magically disappears. Pepiot (and Jonny DeLuca) were traded to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow (and Manuel Margot) and that makes me think the Rays really wanted him. To recap: Fantasy baseball players wanted him recently; the Rays, a team everyone thinks is smart, wanted him and last year he put up 167 2/3 IP with a 3.86 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 with a tick in velocity (95.2 MPH on the fastball), which was good for a top 35 starter on the Player Rater last year, and now he’s being drafted around the 45th to 50th starter on the board. This is already a layout and I didn’t even get to the other side of the intro paragraph. Okay, let’s create a Y-axis and graph down! So, what can we expect from Ryan Pepiot for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
I’ve mentioned this before, but a 9 K/9 and a 1 BB/9 or 10 K/9 or more and a 2 BB/9 or lower and you’re in prime territory. Then you place them closer together and you get a number two, then a three, and so on. Ryan Pepiot is a limit of two to three. It’s a very solid number three at worst. Last year he had a 1.4 HR/9. That was in Grote Stein. Put him in a haunted stadium like Trop and he drops to a HR/9 of 1.2 or lower, and you’re looking at an ERA of 3.60. If you’re lucky, I’ll talk Pepiot into the top 20 starters. Easy, gray! Stop getting excited about number three with number two upside down. He does face a lot of fly balls (45.3% for his career), but that wasn’t a problem in Trop. It was a problem last year and he was still a top 35 starter!
The only knock on Ryan Pepiot was his lack of command. Yes, when he was first drafted he had a 6.7 BB/9. El oh el. That’s terrible. That was a long time ago. He has a 3.4 BB/9 in 376 career innings and 3.3 BB/9 last year. He’s not exactly elite with his command, but it’s far from the awfulness people thought it would be. He’s basically league average.
The speed of his four-seamer went up last year, as mentioned, but his BAA went down. Again, Big Stein. His Big Stein BAA was .233 in the four-seamer and .181 last time in Trop. His Whiff% dropped from 31.4% to 25.2%. Again, that was at the park change. Put it back in the Trop, where hitters fear that if they hit a fly ball, they’ll knock over an air conditioning unit and pray that Yandy catches it, and the lights will be out. Literally, if one of those fly balls hits a light pole.
Now, to bury the lede: his change is unfeasible. It’s stupid:
Number one in spinning. Had a .200 BAA, 30.1 Whiff%, and he threw it 25% of the time. Very stupid:
Ryan Pepiot, Nasty 80mph change. ?
5th K pic.twitter.com/i0sYaKYOS6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 5, 2025
Why don’t people care about Pepiot? Maybe it’s his lack of a nickname. Call him Piot! You know, like Ryan Theriot was The Riot. No? Hmm, you’re probably right. Maybe it’s because projections seem to hate him. They drafted him as a 9.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 pitcher – two steps forward – but a 4.27 ERA guy. Why? Don’t know. They let his home runs stay where they were in the terrible park versus regress. His HR/9 in home games last year: 1.7 and in away games 1.0. The year before it was in Trop 1.1. So the guy is legitimately getting better in a lot of ways, and will be in a better park and the projections think he’ll take a step back. No. Dur. Sorry, this is incredibly obvious. For 2026, I’m giving Ryan Pepiot projections of 10-9/3.58/1.15/172 in 170 IP with a chance for more information on ratios.
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