Rocket Lab launches higher as SpaceX prepares for 2026 IPO

Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares rose 10% today to close at $63.53 per share, fueled by new reports that Elon Musk’s SpaceX is gearing up for a successful IPO in 2026. As the world’s largest private space company, SpaceX is looking to tap public markets with a staggering valuation target of $1.5 trillion, potentially raising more than $30 billion – the largest IPO ever.

The listing – scheduled for mid-to-late 2026 – rides the wave of Starlink’s explosive growth and Starship’s moonshot ambitions. Although SpaceX’s move won’t directly impact Rocket Lab’s business, investors still piled into RKLB, betting on a rising tide that would lift all space stocks. This exuberance highlights the frothy mood in the sector, but the math behind these valuations requires a closer look.

Sky-high multiples in the space race

Investors scratched out calculations that extrapolated SpaceX’s lofty ambitions to peers like Rocket Lab. If SpaceX hits the estimated $23 billion in 2026 revenue expected (equivalent to NASA’s budget) from the continued boom in Starlink satellite broadband and a possible direct-to-mobile business, a $1.5 trillion valuation will give it a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of around 65x – stratospheric even for Musk’s empire.Tesla (TSLA) trades at about 15x).

Rocket Lab, with a current market cap hovering around $30 billion and analysts predicting revenue of around $900 million by 2026 from Electron launches and emerging Neutron contracts, is trading at a slightly more grounded forward revenue of 33x, or half the premium that SpaceX could offer. If the market were to apply just some of the SpaceX hype to Rocket Lab — for example, giving it a 50x multiple — its market cap could soar to $45 billion, sending its shares up 50% or more.
It’s the kind of quick math that turns stock chat rooms into echo chambers of optimism, with RKLB’s backlog hovering around $1.1 billion as rocket fuel for the imagination.

Temper enthusiasm with a dose of reality

But can SpaceX even pull off such an IPO valuation? It could not be – nor should it be – reaching such heights. While Starlink’s user base could grow to 10 million by 2026, and Starship promises reusable heavy-lift magic, regulatory hurdles remain, launch delays and even political fighting could clip those wings. A $1.5 trillion label feels a bit ambitious.
Second, Rocket Lab is not a SpaceX clone that deserves the same premium. The Electron rocket has proven to be a reliable workhorse, with 18 launches so far this year and a sharp turn into the small satellite niche. The emerging Neutron could unlock mid-lift markets and drive revenue growth sixfold, targeting larger payloads and constellation deployments.

Still, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Starship carry heavier, more expensive cargo, such as crewed NASA missions to the ISS or Starlink’s own mega-constellation. Rocket Lab’s niche is flexible and growing, but lacks SpaceX’s scale, government dependence, and most importantly, profitability. I’ve long argued that RKLB is on a fantastic trajectory: its vertical integration and launch cadence make it a long-term buy. But setting SpaceX multiples equal to RKLB puts the booster rockets ahead of the cargo bay.

In short

Today’s jump, while exciting, is simply market exuberance, a reflexive move on SpaceX’s soon-to-return-to-Earth IPO. Rocket Lab has a solid upward arc ahead as the Neutron Rocket continues to develop and space demand rises, and it deserves to be part of diversified portfolios. Don’t get carried away by the speculative fervor of the moment.