Looking ahead, 82% of homeowners expect their premiums to increase by 2026. Most expect modest increases: 43% expect increases of 1% to 5%. Another 29% expect increases of 6% to 10%, while 16% expect premiums to increase by more than 10%. report said.
Insurance costs increasingly determine home buying behavior. Nearly half of homeowners – 49% – say the cost of home insurance weighs “very heavily” or “seriously” on their purchasing decisions.
Concerns about the adequacy of coverage are also increasing.
Nearly one in three homeowners (31%) say they are not confident they will be able to maintain adequate home insurance coverage until 2026. Nineteen percent plan to change insurer in the coming year.
Climate risks and coverage differences
Climate-related risks underlie many of these concerns.
Nearly all homeowners surveyed – 93% – expect climate-driven extreme weather to damage their homes within the next three years.
More than two-thirds (68%) expect extreme weather events in their area to occur more often in 2026 than last year.
Climate risk also affects where homeowners are willing to live.
Florida and California top the list of homeowners in the states who say they would not move due to exposure to extreme weather conditions, cited by 58% and 52% of respondents, respectively.
Other commonly avoided states include Hawaii, Louisiana, Texas and Alaska.
In contrast, less than 5% of respondents said they would avoid states like Vermont, New Hampshire, Delaware, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Utah or South Dakota because of climate risk.
Nearly half of homeowners – 49% – say they are considering a move by 2026 due to climate-related concerns. Most potential movements would be local rather than long distance.
Of those considering relocation, 41% would move within their current city or community, 35% would move to another state within their state, and 25% would move to another state.
This pattern reflects recent disaster-related relocations, with displaced homeowners often staying within commuting distance of their previous neighborhood, Kin added.
House prices are expected to continue to rise
Pressure on insurance is increasing, parallel to expectations of continued price growth in the housing market.
Eighty percent of homeowners expect home prices in their region to rise by 2026. Another 17% expect prices to remain stable, while only 3% expect a decline.
Federal Agency for Housing Financing Data shows that house prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, continuing a fourteen-year upward trend. Forecasts for 2026 vary – by Fannie Mae with a growth of 1.3% and the National Association of Real Estate Agents (NAR) expects an increase of 4%.
Homeowners also expect higher maintenance costs. Eighty percent expect an increase in repair and maintenance costs for homes by 2026.
Mortgage interest rates are still a barrier
Mortgage rates remain a sticking point for many homeowners considering a move. Although interest rates fell at the end of 2025 due to the Federal Reserve’s cuts – from 7.04% in January to 6.12% in December – most homeowners remain skeptical of further declines.
Only 32% believe interest rates will “fall meaningfully” by 2026. Seventy-four percent say interest rates need to drop to 5% or lower before they can consider buying another home, levels most forecasters don’t currently expect.
“Next year, mortgage rates will be a little better,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “It won’t be a big drop, but it will be a modest drop that will improve affordability.”
Expectations vs. predictions
Homeowners’ climate concerns are consistent with the scientific consensus.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment concludes that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense in the United States.
Economic forecasts are less certain. Sean Harper, founder and CEO of Kin, says homeowners may see more stability in 2026 than in years past.
“We went through a period of economic instability, but it was caused by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates that have since been absorbed,” Harper said.
He also expects less sharp premium increases next year.
“Elevated inflation was one of the main drivers of premium increases in previous years, but inflation is now happening at a more predictable pace,” Harper said. “Significant premium increases were the story in 2024, but they weren’t the story in 2025, except in a few places like California, and they won’t be in 2026.”
The survey was conducted online by Monkfish on December 10, 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. adults ages 18 to 65 who own a single-family home. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number.
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