Ripple Price Analysis: XRP Defies Geopolitical Tensions, But Risks of a Collapse Remain

XRP is showing signs of weakness after the recent breakout, while broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia, the Bitcoin and crypto markets are holding up much better than expected, and XRP is no exception.

XRP Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

XRP recently rose to a key resistance area around $2.40, just below the key 200-day moving average. The asset was quickly rejected, falling below the 100-day moving average (around $2.20) and is now retreating towards the $2.00 support range. This zone also matches the mid-range of the recent move and provides a short-term support cushion.

Yet momentum has waned, as evidenced by the RSI rolling out of the overbought zone and now on the verge of dipping below 50. A daily close below $2.00 could expose XRP to further downside towards the recent low at $1.80. On the upside, regaining the 100-day moving average and closing above the $2.40 supply zone would open the door back to the 200-day moving average and even the significant $3 level as potential targets for the coming months.

The BTC pair

On the daily timeframe of the The price is now trading around 2,250 sats and is back below the 200-day moving average (located around 2,400 sats). The 100-day moving average currently keeps the price near the 2,250 level.

As long as the 2,200–2,250 sats area remains, buyers still have the chance to build a taller, lower structure. Losing that zone would likely send XRP back to the 2,000 sats demand zone. Meanwhile, an upswing and regain of the 2,400 sats level could begin another leg towards the 2,700-2,800 sats range. However, until this scenario plays out, XRP remains weak and will likely underperform against BTC.