BTC Rejection at $95,000 Could Portray Further Trouble in the Future (Bitcoin Price Analysis)

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after a sharp sell-off in November last year. While the broader trend remains under pressure, short-term price action narrows within a tightening structure. With flashing signs of weakened demand from US spot buyers and prices stalling below the major moving averages, BTC traders should keep a close eye on support levels and whether buyers can regain momentum from here.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily time frame, BTC is forming a clear rising wedge pattern after the recent upswing stalled just below the $95,000 resistance zone. The pattern is tightening, with both the upper and lower limits being tested multiple times, indicating an outbreak is approaching. Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages also remain above current price, acting as dynamic resistance near $98K and $105K respectively.

Bitcoin’s price was recently rejected from the $95,000 supply zone, which coincides with the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. The RSI has also cooled from overbought levels and is now hovering around 50, indicating a lack of bullish momentum but also room for potential momentum as buyers return.

In this situation, if the wedge breaks down, the next major support will be around $80,000. A bullish breakout, on the other hand, would need to regain $95,000 and move above the mentioned moving averages before it can be taken as a serious sign of a new rally.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

If we zoom in on the 4-hour chart, the same rising wedge structure is more visible. The price continues to respect the rising trendline from the November low, but multiple attempts to break above $95K have failed.

The momentum on lower time frames is choppy, with no clear follow-through from either side. Buyers defended the midrange and the rising trend line several times, but the lack of strength near resistance is concerning.

A breakdown below the lower bound near $88K would likely trigger a retest of the high volume node near $86K and potentially push BTC towards the large green demand zone around $80K. On the other hand, if buyers manage to regain the $92K high and break above the key resistance zone at $95K, an aggressive move towards the critical $100K level can be expected.

Sentiment analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and global exchanges, has printed significant negative values ​​and remains in the red. Historically, strong positive premiums have been associated with large upward trends, mainly driven by US spot buyers.

The current negative premium indicates reduced demand from US institutional and private players, which could be a potential warning sign that the recent rebound may not be sustainable. This metric has often preceded deeper pullbacks during correction phases. Until the premium turns positive again, any bullish move should be treated with caution.