Interest in the 6’6″ righty seems to be high indeed. Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic reported this this morning that Ponce could more than double the $15 million guaranteed guarantee Erik Fedde in his return to Major League Baseball from the Korea Baseball Organization two seasons ago. Clubs generally expect Ponce to get a three-year contract, according to The Athletic’s report. Fedde’s $15 million guarantee is the largest any North American pitcher has received upon returning from the KBO, so doubling that (or more) would set a new precedent.
A $30 million cap would be a pretty big risk for a 31-year-old (32 in April) who hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2021 and never had much big-league success. However, Ponce was recently named KBO MVP after a historically dominant season. Ponce pitched to a 1.89 ERA in 180 2/3 innings with the Hanwha Eagles and set the single-season strikeout record (252) and the single-game strikeout record (18) in South Korea’s major league. He sparked a comical 36.2% of his opponents with a massive 16.5% swing-strike rate and a walk rate of just 5.9%.
In 2020-21, Ponce threw 55 1/3 innings for the Pirates, who acquired him from division rival Brewers. The former second-round pick posted a 5.86 ERA in 55 1/3 innings and struck out just 19.6% of his opponents.
Things have changed for Ponce since that first MLB run. He pitched three years in Japan and a fourth year (2025) in Korea. The 255-pound right-hander has added significant velocity, jumping from an average 90-mph fastball with the Pirates to some Suggests Eno Sarris of the Athletic averaged 95 mph for the Eagles.
Evaluators who spoke to MLBTR last month ahead of our Top 50 Free Agent List (where Ponce was ranked 39th) offered similar assessments, noting that he sat at 94-96 mph and reached a top speed of 98 mph. Ponce also added a splitter and kick change that missed bats. A scout who spoke to MLBTR brought up Ponce unsolicited when discussing other free agents from Japan’s NPB and KBO, and opined he might top $20 million. That was before free agency really started.
If there was any doubt about Ponce’s impending return to the MLB, the Eagles’ actions since the end of the season will likely erase them. The JoongAng Daily report indicates that Hanwha has already effectively replaced Ponce by signing the 26-year-old right-hander Wilkel Hernándezwho pitched for the Tigers’ Triple-A club in recent seasons. If the Eagles thought there was a chance to keep their ace and reigning MVP, they certainly would have waited, as KBO teams are limited in the number of foreign players they can select.
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