Reliance bull run: RIL adds Rs 4.4 lakh crore by 2025 as telecom and O2C are on fire together; Should you buy or sell? This is what experts say – The Times of India

After a lackluster 2024, Reliance Industries is enjoying one of the sharpest rebounds since the Covid year of 2020, with a wide range of triggers across the energy, telecom and retail sectors fueling a strong revaluation. The Nifty heavyweight has risen over 26% in 2025, adding Rs 4.4 lakh crore to its valuation and taking its market capitalization close to Rs 21 lakh crore, with the stock hitting a 52-week high of Rs 1,557.95 on Friday.Analysts attribute the rise to what they describe as a rare confluence of headwinds: improving refining margins, tariff-led gains in the telecom sector, solid retail growth and multiple levers to unlock value. Brokers who keep track of the tally say these factors are starting to impact the visibility of profits, an ET report shows.Jefferies has sharply raised its target enterprise value for Reliance Jio to $180 billion, expecting revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 18% and 21%, respectively, for FY26-28. It cited rising tariffs, fixed wireless access-led broadband growth, business scaling and monetization of Jio’s technology suite as key catalysts, and raised its targeted EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x, a 10% premium for Bharti Airtel.Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay expects the telecom segment to be a major accelerator. “The next quarter’s results will be very positive as the benefits of the ARPU increase are fully realized,” he said – quoted ET – adding that another increase in ARPU before the end of fiscal policy could create “new momentum”. He noted that the announcement of Jio’s listing AGM in the first half of next calendar year could create further excitement. “This value-unlocking event and its announcement will also create a lot of excitement in the counter,” he said.ICICI Securities has upgraded Reliance to Buy with a price target of Rs 1,735, indicating strong retail momentum, progress in new energy initiatives and the growing importance of its media business. The brokerage expects a consolidated CAGR per share of 15% over FY26-28, supported by diversified growth engines and improved return ratios.The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, which has been under pressure for a long time, is also improving. UBS said refining margins in Asia have strengthened due to “sound fundamentals, refinery maintenance, seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical developments”, with middle distillate and gasoline spreads supported by resilient demand. It expects margins to moderate slightly as refineries return from maintenance, but sees spreads persisting above mid-cycle despite project delays. UBS forecasts O2C EBITDA to rise from Rs 295 billion in the first half of the year to Rs 340 billion in the second half of FY26, and further to Rs 648 billion in FY27, while maintaining buy target of Rs 1,820, according to an ET report.Reliance said last week it has halted imports of Russian crude for its export-only refinery in Jamnagar amid European Union sanctions. Bandyopadhyay said he does not expect this to hurt profitability: “The way GRMs are evolving… Reliance is very well positioned to maintain its profitability and revenue from this segment.”He added that unlocking value in retail also remains a potential driver. “Something can be done in terms of unlocking value in retail – that has also become quite big and some value unlocking measures can be taken there.”As telecom profits, O2C recovery, retail expansion and new energy developments converge, analysts expect the momentum to continue. “We have been bullish on Reliance for quite some time and continue to be bullish,” Bandyopadhyay said. “With a somewhat long-term view, Reliance can be bought even now.”For the company’s 44 lakh shareholders, the turnaround marks a dramatic shift from the volatility of 2024. If the catalysts identified by analysts come to fruition, the stock’s rally in 2025 could still have room.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These views do not represent the views of The Times of India)