This Rays offseason included a search for veteran starting pitching* for 2026, with three veterans with previous experience with the Rays listed early in the offseason in former Opening Day starter Zach Eflin, the recently traded Zack Littell, or the team’s lone departing free agent, Adrian Houser.
Read more: Rays Rumors: A reunion of starting pitchers
Unfortunately, two of those players are now off the board, with Eflin signing a one-year, $10 million contract with an option with the Orioles last night, and Houser finding a two-year, $22 million contract with the Giants earlier this month, and Littell is expected to sign for a similar value to both.
*The Rays have signed LHP Steven Matz, who has been vocal about his attempt to start again at age 34, but it is unclear whether he is guaranteed a starting role. Additionally, the Rays rotation will likely have room, as the rest of the rotation includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot and Joe Boyle, in addition to a hopefully returning Shane McClanahan.
The starting pitching market is also in a bit of a pickle, with top free agents Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen and Chris Bassitt still unsigned, but there is one free agent who will decide his future this week: Japanese star RHP Tatsuya Imai, whose MLB negotiating window ends Friday, January 2.
Imai, in his own words after a recent meeting with his agent scott boras, he has no formal contract offers in hand yet, while the NYPost has tied his free agency to the Mets, Phillies and Cubs.
A star in the Seibu Lions rotation since his age 20 season, he is undoubtedly the top player coming out of Japan this season and just had his best year at age 27, posting a 1.92 ERA/2.01 FIP with a 27.8% K-rate and a 7.0% walk rate.
Imai primarily works with a fastball that can reach 90 mph, a gyro slider that could be one of the more unique breakballs in 2026, and a changeup to keep left-handed hitters off balance. He works from a lower-than-average arm slot, which gives him extra movement in his off-speed pitches, which averaged 18 inches on the arm side.
This profile has drawn easy comparisons to Mariners ace Luis Castillo, who signed a five-year guaranteed deal in 2023 with a $21.6 million AAV, and Twins star Joe Ryan, with David Adler of MLB.com also finds consistencies with profiles Paul Skenes, current Max Scherzer and also Trey Yesavage.
Imai is expected to get a free agent deal with an AAV of $22 million, according to FanGraphs, which is in line with the one-year qualifying offer Shota Imanga signed to return to the Cubs this year, and just a hair better than the two-year deal 37-year-old Merrill Kelly just signed with the Diamondbacks, but also lower than the $25 million AAV free agent Michael King got from the Padres after a down year, and even further away from the $27 million AAV, 7-year deal Dylan Cease just signed with the Blue Jays.
In other words, expectations have placed him in the second tier of free agents (behind Cease, Suarez and Valdez), but at an age a few years younger than his peers. The reason he isn’t in the top tier of starters is simply his lack of MLB experience. Any veteran coming from a league outside the U.S. comes with inherent risks that the Rays are already familiar with. Sometimes that risk pays off (Aki Iwamura) and sometimes it doesn’t (Yoshi Tsutsugo), but for a team in need of length in the rotation that likely considers itself competitive in the AL East, potentially adding a top veteran at a discount could provide an edge to the Rays pitching staff beyond just the cost of $/war.
And while this may sound like a lot for the Rays, who only have four players making more than $5 million next season (Rasmussen, Matz, Cedric Mullins and Yandy Diaz), it’s worth considering that the Rays also need to spend some money just to avoid a complaint with the MLB Players Association. If you have to spend money, I’d rather see this Rays team bet big on a potential star than continue to nibble on marginal improvements around the edges of the roster.
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