Raw material radar: Why the chasing of the current rally of crude oil can be counterproductive-Anand Rathi expert claims that ‘selling’ rise

The price for crude oil witnessed a sharp peak on Wednesday, relieved due to the expectations of a lower than expected production increase by the OPEC+ in October. The futures on crude oil in October rose by 1.4% and reached the highest point of the day of RS 5,554 per BBL.

The oil prices also rose on the Comex, with the American WTI trading at $ 62.33 per BBL, an increase of $ 0.60 or 0.97%, while the Brent oil price fluctuated around $ 66.01 and rose by $ 0.56 or 0.86%.

This is as a large relief for oil traders after a fall of $ 5 per barrel last week because of the fear of an oversupply in the aftermath of higher oil production by the global oil cartel.

The group has already planned an increase of 1.37,000 barrels per day for October and could add the same increase for November to recover market share.

Naveen Mathur, director of Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers gave his vision of current trends and prospects and said that the oil market has gone through a volatile start of October, because the markets have the cautious production strategy of the OPEC+ weighing against the rising global offer and the decreasing global offer.

“Last week, the WTI price for crude oil fell by almost 7.5% to the lowest point in several weeks, after reports suggested that the group was considering larger production increases. The OEPC+ and his allies opted for a modest addition of 137,000 barrels per day before November,” said Mathur. geopolitical risks. The global stocks rose in the first nine months of 2025 by 269 million barrels, in which China took over a third. On a geopolitics, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries disrupted fuel processing, stricled the Russian export availability and offered some bullish support.

PRESENTATIONS FOR THE OLD PRICE

Mathur expects that the oil markets will act within a cautious bandwidth, since they closely monitor compliance with the OPEC+production figures, the US economic figures that are delayed by the public hutdown and any further developments in Ukraine.

While the geopolitical tensions and the strategic storage of stocks for occasional price support ensure, the threat of a supply surplus remains, so that the Bearish Trend remains intact, apart from big surprises, he added.

Also read: Raw material radar: The overbought status of Zink will cause consolidation in the short term

Technical display

On the Weekly Chart, MCX Crude Oil (October contract) registered a highest point of RS 6.585, although it was not successful at higher levels and has since witnessed a corrective decrease.

The price action on the Weekly Chart continues to show a Lower top and Lower-Bottom formation, which is indicative of a persistent bearish trend and an underlying negative sentiment on the market, warns Mathur.

In addition to the Bearish bias, a negative cross-over on the MacD, in combination with a bearish divergence, further confirms the weakening momentum and this indicates the possibility of a persistently downward trend, he added.

Trade strategy

The director of Anand Rathi has placed the most important support levels on RS 5,320, followed by RS 5,100, while the resistance is on RS 5,800 – RS 6.040.

In the light of the prevailing technical situation, a Sell-on-Rise strategy is recommended.

Sell ​​MCX-Ruwe Oil in rising line around RS 5.760-5,800 with a stop loss of RS 6.040 and an objective of RS 5.320.

(Disclaimer: the recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts belong to themselves. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)