PPerhaps the climate change or perhaps it is just a blip, but for the second time in three seasons, the word ‘bon’ could appear well in the ranging description at Longchamp when the best middle-distance horses in Europe and Japan are gathering in the Bois de Boulogne on Sunday for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the Showplace Events.
Seventeen horses stay in this year after the penultimate statement on Monday, while Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four races this season, including the Oaks and Irish Oaks, is expected to be added to the field in the additional access phase on Wednesday.
However, a significant number prior to the race on Sunday is reading 7.2 on The GoWerstick at Longchamp, which amounts to “Bon Souple”, or good to soft, prior to the six-day run-in to Arc Day with little or no rain in the prediction.
Predictions can of course change in an instant, not least in the early fall, and ARC Day itself 12 months ago was a mix of rain showers and dazzling sunshine. At the moment, however, the chance of this weekend this weekend will be welcome news for connections to a Japanese challenge with three strictness-croix du Nord, Byzantine Dream and Alohi Alii but perhaps less for Backers from Aidan O’Brien’s second-string, Los Angeles, who was third at home 12 months ago, behind Bluestockking and Aventure.
O’Brien has already won 19 group one this season after the success of True Love in the Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday, and he has submissions in all eight of the Group One events during the two-day arch meeting. Minnie HAUK, who this year has a group a winning form on both good-to-soft and good-on-supplied soil, fights for favoritism with Christophe Ferland’s Aventure with British bookmakers around 4-1.
“Everything went well with them since their last runs,” O’Brien said about his two runners at the weekend. Christophe [Soumillon, the stable’s temporary number one rider with Ryan Moore sidelined by injury] Red Minnie Hawuk during the week and he was very happy.
“Los Angeles has made a major improvement since his last run and if the soil gets soft, it would take him straight, he is a large powerhouse.”
A broken thigh, which was diagnosed at the end of August after he had dressed it for a few weeks, Moore forced Moore on the sidelines for the rest of the year, but also offers Soumillon an unexpected opportunity to add a third arch to his record, after victories over Zarkava and Dalakhani in respectively 2003 and 2008.
Soumillon has been such a power in the saddle for the past 20 years, both in France and in the worldwide, that it is a bit shocking to realize that his last arc appearing was 17 years ago. But then even O’Brien, who has saddled no fewer than 11 derby winners in Epsom in the course of his career, has only found two arch wins to his name, with Dylan Thomas and in 2007 and 2016 respectively.
O’Briens relative lack of success in the arch is a reminder of how difficult it can be to defeat the French on their home grass, and further adds shine to the amazing record of André Fabre of eight victories.
Fabre still has two live runners – Sosie and Cualificar – in the race on Sunday, while the British challenge is expected to run no more than three horses, with Kalpana (Andrew Balding), Giavellotto (Marco Botti) and Estrange (David O’Meara) still under the entrances.
“Adventure’s victory in the Vermeille prize [in early September] Was a real relief, “said Ferland Monday.” We really waited for that victory. Before that she had raced four times at this level … [and] She was only beaten by horses of the caliber of Bluestocking, the arch winner or Calandagan [the 2025 King George winner at Ascot]. It was an important step in her career, although of course we have more goals ahead of us.
“Aventure performs well on soft soil and getting heavier. It can rain a bit for the race, but I am not obsessively checking it again – it is something that we simply cannot control. Nights are now cool and damp, so the track will not dry as quickly as in the summer.”
Quick guideGreg Wood’s Tuesday tips
Show
Ayr 2.00 Penelope’s Sister 2.30 Jeddaal 3.00 Cisco Disco 3.30 Tactical plan 4.00 Lima Sierra 4.30 Dandy Magic 5.05 Makaiah
Sedgefield 2.07 Roadshow 2.37 Ammes 3.07 Moonshine Man 3.37 Zamond 4.07 Harel du Marais 4.37 Siouxfonic
Bath 2.22 Blue Hero 2.52 Jimmy Mark 3.22 Fact or Fable 3.52 King or Speed 4.22 Blue Courvoisier 4.52 Cressida Wildes 5.25 Geeman 5.55 on Edge
Newcastle 5.00 Hash Tagnotions 5.30 Saratoga Gold 6.00 Helly Goodbye (NB) 6.30 Golden Conqueror 7.00 Fanjove 7.30 second violin (nap) 8.00 Penelope Valentine 8.30 a Lady Forever
Last year there were only two runners-trained runners in the 16-person field, when the Bluestocking of Ralph Beckett came home. However, Estrange would need some rain to show her best shape, while Kalpana, the Ante-Post Favorite for the bow after second place in the King George in July, a disappointing favorite behind Giavellotto was in her preparatory run in Kempton this month.
Arch waves after the last statements 4:
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