Quantum computers versus Bitcoin: why 2026 will be business as usual

Quantum computing and DATs are overhyped risks for 2026, says Grayscale, predicting new highs for Bitcoin.

Grayscale said it expects 2026 to accelerate long-term structural shifts in digital asset investing, driven by macroeconomic pressures and clearer regulations.

But it has outlined two high-profile topics that it does not expect to meaningfully impact the crypto market’s performance in 2026: the risks of quantum computing and the rise of digital asset treasuries (DATs).

Quantum risks and DATs will not move the markets

Although concerns around quantum computing regularly surface, Grayscale argues in its latest report entitled ‘2026 Digital Asset Outlook’ that the threat is still far from a market impact perspective.

While sufficiently powerful quantum machines could theoretically compromise existing cryptography, expert estimates suggest such possibilities are unlikely before 2030. As a result, research into post-quantum cryptography and network readiness may accelerate next year, but Grayscale will not. to expect these efforts to materially impact cryptocurrency valuations in the near term.

The company has taken a similarly measured stance on DATs, despite growing media attention. Corporate balance sheet strategies that hold crypto assets grew rapidly in 2025, but demand has cooled since then and many DATs now trade close to intrinsic value. Importantly, most of them have little leverage and are unlikely to lead to forced selling during a recession.

The asset manager expects DATs to function more like closed-end funds, making them an enduring but largely neutral force for the crypto markets by 2026.

New ATH in 2026?

On the price side, Grayscale has reiterated its bullish view on Bitcoin, predicting that it is likely to hit a new all-time high in the first half of the year, even as the market grapples with near-term weakness. According to the asset manager, the broader crypto asset class is still in a bull market and 2026 is expected to mark the end of the traditional four-year cycle, which could lead to rising valuations across sectors.

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Grayscale’s optimism rests on two core pillars. First, there is the growing macro demand for alternative stores of value, as high and rising government debt levels increase long-term risks for fiat currencies. In this environment, scarce digital commodities such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly seen as portfolio hedges against potential currency decline.

Second, improving regulatory clarity unlocks institutional capital. Some of the major milestones, including Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC, the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETPs, and the passage of stablecoin legislation, have reduced uncertainty for investors.

Looking ahead, the company expects further bipartisan legislation on the structure of the crypto market, which could firmly entrench blockchain-based financing in US capital markets and support higher Bitcoin prices.