The World Series is just around the corner and the offseason starts in about two weeks. One of the first major decisions for teams is whether to make a qualifying offer to one of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the end of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in the MLB. This year’s prize is $22.025 million. Players who receive the QO will have approximately two weeks to get a first impression of the market before deciding whether to accept it. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season – as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.
If the player declines and signs elsewhere, his former team will receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and possibly international signing bonus space. Compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue distribution and luxury tax status. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lost a qualified free agent, and what penalties they would have to pay to sign one.
Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively lightweight class of projected receivers on the position player side. There’s more intrigue in the pitching, which could include a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.
No doubters
This group is clear. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will likely enter the offseason with nine-figure demand of his own based on his durability, plus stuff and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half may keep him from cashing in at that level, but he could at least get a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There is no reason for him to accept a one-year contract.
Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38 million contract. He wouldn’t do that just to accept a one-year, $22 million offer. He will decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20 million annually.
Likely recipients
All of these throwers also seem like comfortable receivers, although it’s not 100% certain that all of them will decline like the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that ended with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging year to walk, but he’s only 30 years old and just months away from a case for a $150 million contract. While he won’t get there now, he should be able to get a two-year contract with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.
King and Woodruff would have rejected the QO had they finished the season at full speed. King missed a few months with a nasty nerve injury in his throwing shoulder and then lost a few weeks with a knee problem. He returned in mid-September, but has not gone beyond five innings in any of his last four starts. The Padres carried him to the playoff roster, but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they moved to a reduced Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while King remains in the bullpen. It’s still likely he’ll reject the qualifying offer and sign a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle for the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He had missed all of 2024 and the first half of last season while recovering from shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers in the world. He posted a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate over 12 starts. Teams are always looking for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has such a ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) will likely keep him at two or three years, but he should get a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.
Borderline calls
Flaherty has a $20 million player option. He will only become a free agent if he thinks he can beat it on the open market. Would he decline the option of just accepting a qualifying offer of an additional $2 million if the Tigers offered that? That seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. He would have about two weeks after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he doesn’t find the kind of early interest he was hoping for, it might make sense to accept the offer.
The Tigers would have to decide if it’s worth taking that opportunity. Flaherty is coming off a mediocre 4.64 ERA, but picked up the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities with true Nick Pivetta was this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile, but concerned about his home run propensity. It was a bit surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ultimately earned the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue share recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still gets a $50 million+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).
Giolito lost the 2024 season due to internal brace surgery. He started this year on the injured list after suffering a hamstring strain during Spring Training. He posted a nearly 5.00 ERA in May before establishing himself as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito posted a 3.03 earned run average over 20 starts and 113 innings starting in June.
A strikeout rate of less than 20% cast some doubt on the sustainability of this type of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14 million team option into a $19 million mutual. Luis Severino had a similar profile, demanding three years and $67 million with an opt-out after rejecting a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was overpaid for a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50 million range is still preferable to accepting a QO.
Then came another injury. At the end of the regular season, Giolito suffered from flexor irritation and a bone problem in his throwing elbow. He didn’t make the Wild Card roster and wouldn’t have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there is no ligament damage and that the problem should heal with rest. Whether to meet the QO will depend on Boston’s risk tolerance.
The Sox’ luxury tax status should also be a consideration. According to unofficial public estimates, they are just above the base threshold of $241 million. If that’s the case, they won’t get a compensatory pick until after the fourth round if Giolito declines a QO and signs elsewhere. It would fall into the overall range of #75 – just like the Pivetta pick – if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be publicly announced until MLB releases final payroll figures in December, but the team certainly has an idea of where they stand.
Imanaga has a complex option setup that could keep him from hitting free agency. The Cubs must first decide whether to exercise a three-year option worth $57 million for the 2026-2028 seasons. If they refuse, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30 million on his deal. If both parties reject their end to the option structure, he will be a free agent. The Cubs would then have to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be satisfied with letting Imanaga walk.
The long-standing assumption was that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024, posting a 3.08 ERA across 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he was torched in September (6.51 ERA), giving up six runs in 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoffs. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.
That will probably remain a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he is an extreme flyball thrower. After striking out over a quarter of batters during his rookie season, that dropped to just below average of 20.6% this year. There are a lot of warning signs, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings over the last two seasons. How much have the last six weeks soured the Cubs on his future prediction?
Unlikely/long shots
This group is called volatile, mainly because there are often one or two long-awaited recipients every year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it would be a big surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.
Suarez probably has the best chance. He is one of the best closers in the game and should get a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. However, the Padres have dealt with short-term payroll questions in recent years, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should walk Suarez.
Mahle had an excellent 2.18 ERA over 16 starts, but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled several shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Entrusting Mahle with $22 million would make little sense.
Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the best relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would have been in that group if he had a typical platform year, but he is finishing his first and likely only season in the Bronx with an ERA of almost 5.00.
Not suitable
Players who received a qualifying offer earlier in their career cannot be tagged with a second offer. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who have been on their roster for the entire previous season. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (which would have been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.
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