Premier League title race: can Manchester City catch Arsenal?

With Arsenal in control and Liverpool fading, can Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City close the gap in the Premier League title race?

Manchester City has found its way again. Arsenal looks like a real one. And Liverpool – well, Liverpool may finally have run out of road.

As we enter the final international break of the year, the Premier League title race is taking shape and starting to feel like the familiar two-horse sprint between Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta.

The question now is simple: can Manchester City catch Arsenal, or can Arteta’s side build a platform too solid to falter?

Can Liverpool still win the league?

Let’s start with the big one: Liverpool’s gradual collapse.

The warning signs were there months ago – the drop in pressure intensity, the changes in the structure of the build-up, the reliance on individuals bailing them out rather than a cohesive system.

But losing Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alisson at the same time – the latter to injury – has ripped out all their rhythm.

Without Alisson’s long-range distribution and Trent’s ability to manipulate the right half, Liverpool’s progression has fallen off a cliff.

Salah still gets the ball in advanced areas, but no longer in that extra five meters of space that allowed him to isolate defenders one-on-one. Without these attack angles, Liverpool’s attack is flatter and easier to control.

In midfield, Dominik Szoboszlai was the only player who operated with the intensity of the ‘old Liverpool’. He has been their best presser and their most progressive passer, but he is surrounded by teammates who have not adapted or are not suited to the new structure. And it has resulted in a team that is too passive without the ball and too mechanical with it.

Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool built its success on one simple principle: perseverance as a playmaker. That’s gone. The press is no longer nearly as effective.

Liverpool’s standards for defensive efficiency have dropped in quiet play, and that’s not something you can fake your way through in the Premier League. Even if the press worked, say, 30% better, they would be in the top two. But instead, they don’t even participate in the race.

And that’s before we even talk about the personnel issues. Konate, Kerkez and Mac Allister all performed well below their best levels.

Florian Wirtz, one of the two attacking players, looks like a player still learning the rhythms of English football. He moves too much and too fast and doesn’t respect the positional structure, and it disrupts the collective flow.

It seems that Szoboszlai is dragging the rest along with her willpower. There is a reason why Liverpool fans are fed up with transfer speculation surrounding the Hungarian.

TLDR: Liverpool’s system is broken on both sides of the ball. The solution isn’t quick, and it won’t happen in time to catch Arsenal or City.

Here’s how the Opta supercomputer’s 2025-2026 Premier League title prospects have changed since the start of the season.

Man City analysis: Premier League title chances

While Liverpool fell apart, Manchester City quietly restructured. Guardiola, after a year of tinkering with hybrid systems and inverted roles, has opted for something that seems strangely pragmatic.

This new Manchester City blueprint is part Unai Emery, part Arne Slot, part vintage Pep – a team that can do it all, even if it’s not perfect.

City can now defend deeper and hit teams on the counter, instead of suffocating them high up the pitch.

We’ve seen how willing they have been to sit in a mid-block 4-5-1 and accept being pushed back, knowing their technical quality can get them out. That means players like Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden drop much deeper to receive the ball. In the recent win at Liverpool, both had as many touches in their own third as in the final third.

It’s a catch-22 formation: if you play from deep you invite pressure, and if you press high you create space in the back. But City have the technicians to live with that paradox. Think of Rodri, Stones, Bernardo – players who can take the sting out of pressure and turn it into opportunities.

Oh, and they have a big freak named Erling Haaland out front.

But ultimately, this version of City can live in any game state. They can apply pressure, counter, sit back and build. Pep has finally embraced imperfection, which could make them even more dangerous both in Europe and at home. It is not the all-controlling city of 2021, but it is one that can tolerate discomfort.

That adaptability is how you win long seasons. And Jeremy Doku’s improvement and new end product gives City the kind of unstoppable one-on-one dynamic they lacked last year. He becomes the wildcard that unlocks compact blocks, a key reason why City are back in business.

Arsenal’s playing style compared to Manchester City

And then there’s Arsenal, who certainly look like the most “complete” team in the Premier League at the moment.

Arteta’s side are tactically disciplined, physically imposing and capable of suffocating games with their mid-block pressing. They don’t always shine when attacking, but they rarely lose control. Their 2-2 draw against Sunderland was a reminder that even elite teams can falter, but the underlying structure is solid. Arsenal scored around 2.0 expected goals, dominated the area and only conceded from individual mistakes rather than structural deficiencies, so fans should remain calm – at least for now.

Bukayo Saka’s return to form is timely, and the depth Arteta has in the forward areas when fully fit – Gyokeres, Eze, Havertz, Trossard, Jesus, Martinelli, Madueke – gives them multiple tactical game modes. They can work directly with Gyokeres and use Madueke, Eze and Trossard for creative overloads, or lean on Havertz for control.

Arsenal will have six injured players in the squad again after the November international break:

🇧🇷 Gabriel Jesus
🇧🇷 Gabriel Martinelli
🏴’s Department of the clients of the clients
🇸🇪Viktor Gyokeres
🇳🇴 Martin Odergaard
🇩🇪Kai Havertz

Squad depth in action soon 🔥 pic.twitter.com/wbpFdJmj8l

— TVG (@Teamgyokeres) November 10, 2025

The spine is strong, the bench is deep and the defensive record is elite. All that makes Arsenal the current favorites.

The question is whether their threat in open play will be consistent enough to deter City. They create plenty of half-chances and are obviously incredible from set pieces, but sometimes lack the edge that ensures City’s individual quality.

Odegaard’s return to full sharpness, and the way Arteta integrates Eze down the left, could determine whether Arsenal stay on top or fade under pressure.

Why this city was built for the run-in

For whatever reason, Guardiola’s teams have a habit of waking up after Christmas. The stats start to climb, the automatons become sharper and suddenly they’re on a twelve-game winning streak before anyone realizes what’s happening.

This year’s version feels ready for exactly that.

Haaland scored more goals than ever, Foden influenced the game from deeper than we are used to, and Doku brings a new dimension to the future. Defensively, Dias and Stones are fit again and have leadership, and Rodri remains the most irreplaceable player in England. Add the ability to suffering – to sit deep, defend crosses and launch counter-attacks – and you have a more complete Manchester City than we have seen in years.

What could hold them back is theoretically variance. Sitting deep often leads to chaos, and against mid-table sides with good technicians – think of the defeats against Brighton, Villa, Spurs – that can bite. But City’s quality still sees them win the most games in 90 minutes.

Can Man City catch Arsenal?

Yes, you can, but it is not guaranteed.

Arsenal is a machine built on control. City is a machine built on talent and adaptability. Liverpool has disappeared from the picture. And what remains is a race between two managers who know each other inside and out, each trying to perfect their version of modern football.

Arsenal probably have the edge if they stay healthy. But City have a higher ceiling, and history tells us they always find a way.

So the answer really depends on whether Pep’s ‘imperfection model’ can survive Arteta’s ‘control model’.

Either way, Liverpool fans might want to look away. The title race in the Premier League seems to be returning to the familiar duel: Arteta versus Guardiola, the student versus the master. And it could easily last until May again.