Sunderland vs Arsenal: 0 – 1 (+500)
Sunderland vs Arsenal: 0 – 2 (+500)
The notable projection from the Dimers model for Gameweek 11 is a 1-0 Arsenal win over Sunderland (15%) at the Stadium of Light, the most likely single score over the round, slightly ahead of a 2-0 Arsenal win by 14%.
Sunderland were promoted to the Premier League at the end of the 2024/2025 season, returning to the top flight after an eight-year absence. Under manager Régis Le Bris, they have made an impressive start and are currently fourth in the table – level on points with Liverpool.
Arsenal, led by Mikel Arteta, remain title favorites and are known for their defensive solidity. They currently have the best defensive record in the league, having scored just three goals in ten games.
The match features Arsenal’s elite pressing and second-placed expected goals (xG) against a well-organized promoted side who have proven difficult to beat at home. The model’s prediction reflects the narrow gap between a defensively excellent title contender and a highly competitive, newly promoted team.
In Dimers’ simulations, Arsenal’s chances of a clean sheet this week are one of the highest of any team, and 0-1 is more common than any other result, slightly ahead of 0-2.
MORE: Arsenal vs Sunderland Predictions
Fulham vs Everton: 1 – 1
Then the data points to a 1-1 draw at the Hill Dickinson Stadium between Fulham and Evertonwhere the model assigns a probability of 13%.
Currently 15th in the league (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses after 10 games), Fulham, led by Marco Silva, remain a bottom-half side built on defensive form and precision on the counter-attack.
Everton have become significantly harder to beat since the reappointment of David Moyes in January 2025 and are focusing on disciplined defensive lines. Moyes took over after the dismissal of Sean Dyche and is tasked with steadying the ship. The Toffees are coming off a 1-1 draw at Sunderland (correctly predicted in last week’s article), illustrating their ability to pick up valuable away points.
The Dimers model strikes a remarkable balance between both sides’ metrics: nearly identical xG-for and xG-against figures and similar shot-on-target ratios. The simulations repeatedly converge on one target each, with 1-1 becoming the statistical center point.
MORE: Fulham vs Everton predictions
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: 1 – 1
Completion of Gameweek 11, Dimers projects another 1-1 draw, this time between Nottingham Forest and Leeds United, again with a probability of 13%.
Nottingham Forest have had a chaotic start to the season, with Sean Dyche appointed as third manager following the sacking of Ange Postecoglou (who replaced Nuno Espírito Santo). Forest are currently struggling at the bottom of the table (19th place). The club are looking to find stability at the City Ground, where they will have to strengthen a defense that has conceded the joint second-most goals in the league.
Leeds United were promoted at the end of the 2024/2025 season alongside Sunderland and Burnley. Under Daniel Farke they have been productive going forward and are in the top half of the league in terms of total shots. However, they have shown defensive inconsistencies, especially away from Elland Road, a factor that appears to be weighing heavily according to the model.
Dimers’ simulations reflect this balance perfectly, with Leeds’ attacking threat balancing Forest’s desperate need for stable performances under new manager Dyche, pushing most games towards the final level. The 1-1 prediction is supported by both clubs’ statistical tendencies: mediocre goal production, similar xG profiles and mirrored risk-reward patterns.
MORE: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United predictions
Data-driven precision in the toughest football market
With two out of three correct score predictions last weekend, Dimers’ model continues to prove its edge in one of football’s toughest markets.
For Gameweek 11, the strongest chances of a correct score are:
✅ Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal (15%)
✅ Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal (14%)
✅ Fulham 1-1 Everton (13%)
✅ Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds United (13%)
Every weekend, Dimers translates data into precision, allowing bettors and fans alike to see where the numbers say the balance of probability really lies.
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