Post racing analysis of the colonial (ERR Arlington) million.

Welcome friends at the Turk blog. Remember that this is not a boasting zone, but it is not to say that I have been on fire with the exact grass and the favorites to the left and right removes. My no favorite Exacta bet cost $ 18 but paid $ 88. These are the bets that ROI drive for the horse player.

Again, another race with a better than even money favorite to show. The favorites lose 60% of the time. It is a perspective that I like to exploit. I do everything to prevent bias in my disability and bet. The beautiful girls on Fanduel TV can be compelling, the ex-Jock can be compelling, but it’s all bias. I think I am more successful, do not know if the horse is named after someone who is sick or died, or a good news item about the connections. I am a person and I love a good story about human interest (I cried a lot for the story behind Cody’s wish– But I still bet against him!) Just not if it brings me. Anyway, we look at a wide sample size to ask chatgpt how often the favorite shops or shows.

For Peat just racing In the US, the figures for post-time favorites shift slightly lower than dirt because:

• Peat races often have larger fields And More competitive entries Then dirt races.

• Pace Dynamics can create more disturbances, but the favorite is still performing strong.

📊 Typical American peat racing averages (composed of multi-year Equibase & DRF-MOTHINGS):

• Win: ~ 33–34%

• Place (1st or 2nd): ~ 55-57%

• Show (1st, 2nd or 3rd): ~ 71–73%

That means Favorites on grass mat end up in the top two slightly more than half the timeslightly less than the total racing average (≈58-60%).

August 9, 2025; Cnl; The Arlington Million G1 on firm peat.

With all due respect, Mystics and Did not earn $ 3.7-1 chances. He has done nothing on peat and for a lifelong winner of $ 4.5 mm looks crops at level 1. An emotionless gambler must look for these angles, about bets of horses. I think Integration is a good horse, a horse for the track, but he’s not Secretariat! Those opportunities were too short for $ 0.6-1.

I said I didn’t think Vesting (IRE) Scratch meant something at the pace, and it didn’t. I liked it Cairo But he was so wet in his shoulders that I was not shocked how he was flat. Time -song And Runaway storm Are still running and I rightly thrown them. Left Fort Washington And SonateOf which I both thought they were overlooked and in great form.

Stay handicap, keep looking for the patterns that repeat themselves again and again. As your handicap improves, your bet will improve.

A simple bet I offered paid $ 88 on a bet of $ 18. I also had the superfecta in my handicap, but that is a medicine that I avoid nowadays!

Turk out!