Welcome friends at the Turk blog, where I concentrate on Turflopers and exact gambling.
Knows your self! I should know to avoid 3 Yos. My Roi tells me to avoid them, but I like to get an idea of the next tuning up and Komers. Why am I avoiding 3 years? So much uncertainty and so few actual performance that can be quantified.
Speed. I noticed the last race at DMR, a 1 1/16 for which she had finished to finish late. I also noticed the 75 Beyer, the fact that it was her fourth start, her only graded stakes starts, a G3, she faltered at 6.5f, I noticed that Tomlinson was the third, and her post position of 3 wins at this distance since 2022 (2nd behind post 4). I thought she had a legitimate chance to complete the top 3, but to win a degree 1. I didn’t see that coming, but the breadcrumbs were there for people with better eyes. Difficult to tolerate the 35-1 chances of a high class, the last time winner at DMR.
Things we have good? Did not believe that the thinking process deserved that he became so low and did not believe that a precursor could run against this field on an extra 660 feet. I have that right.
Believed in Lush lips (GB). Again the frivolity of looking at morning lines shows, because the gambling audience has all the dogs good and betting Lush Hard down. 9th start for the sender who had at least a track record of Graded Stakes competitiveness, lost twice from the same day Saratoga Alabama G1 winner, Nitrogen. Winner of the dirt and Grasberg. Nitrogen Is impressive by the way. I have to think that smart gamblers looked at that Alabama result 3 hours earlier Lush lips (GB).
My gamble was on Firenze taste. Too far back and maybe more distance needed. Too big for me.
It’s okay not to win. Learn something from every race and every handicap. Repeat patterns, find them. I’ve done this for a long time and I still learn.
Also what a great ride Jock R. Gonzalez for trainer M. McCarthy. He saved the ground all the way and when the rail opened, he screwed a needle and took it with him.
August 16, 2025; Share Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 miles on sturdy peat.
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