Ponce Upon a December: Jays sign reigning KBO MVP

While 29 American teams are twiddling their thumbs, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to pad their tab on the free agent market. After spending $210 million (deferred) to bring Dylan stops On Thanksgiving Eve, Toronto has now landed one of the top international free agents: a right-handed pitcher Cody Poncelate of the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles.

Even those of you who vaguely remember Ponce from his first stint in the Majors may have trouble distinguishing him from the dozens of big relievers the Pirates have fielded over the past decade. On some level, Ponce’s stint in Asia is just one chapter in a Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants-esque deal he’s stuck with John Holdzko, Nick KoninghamAnd Colin Holderman.

If that guy gets $30 million guaranteed over three years (not to mention his own blog post here commemorating the signing), there must be quite a story.

Ponce last pitched in the Majors in 2021, when he posted a 7.04 ERA in 38 1/3 innings. Then he signed up Shohei Ohtani’s old team, the Nippon Ham Fighters of NPB. After a strong first season in Japan (a 3.35 ERA in 83 1/3 innings), Ponce’s performance declined in 2023, first leading to a move to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, where he spent a disappointing season. He then left Japan completely and signed with the aforementioned Hanwha Eagles of the KBO.

In his one season in Korea, I don’t know how to say this other than: he beat total ass. Ponce made 29 starts, recording a strikeout rate of 36.2% and a walk rate of 5.9%. Only seven qualified starters in AL/NL history have achieved a 30-point K-BB% score in a 162-game season: Pedro Martinez And Justin Verlander (who each did it twice), along with Gerrit Kool, Chris Sales, Randy Johnson, Max ScherzerAnd Corbin Burnes.

Here are some numbers that don’t need to be put into context: a 17-1 record with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WIP, a .197 opponent batting average and 252 strikeouts in 180 2/3 innings. (teammate of Ponce, Hyun Jin Ryuwent 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 139 1/3 innings. Estevan Florial was also on this team, as we only remember a few guys now.)

On his trip back to North America, Ponce will have to pack an extra bag for all his accolades: He set new KBO single-game and single-season strikeout records, and won both the league’s MVP and the Choi Dong-won Award, which is given to the best starting pitcher in the KBO.

The KBO YouTube channel features some clips from Ponce’s 18-strikeout game, along with hilarious auto-dubbed English commentary.

That looks pretty nasty: In the eighth inning, around the 100-pitch mark, Ponce hits 96 with his fastball and then hits 90 with a downfield cutter and an absolutely disgusting-looking changeup. You can see why he cleaned up awards season and why the Jays are so interested.

But Ponce is far from the first American to light up the KBO and then parlay that success into a Major League rotation spot. The last two winners of the Choi Dong-won Award were also Americans: Kyle Hart And Erik Fedde. Earlier this week I mentioned both Hart and Fedde in the context of Matt Manningthe last American to try his hand (or rather his arm) in Korea.

Fedde’s post-KBO record is mixed, while Hart’s is disappointing. Can Ponce do better?

There’s only one way to find out, of course, and going from the KBO back to North America will require more adjustment than meets the eye. Not only are the quality and playing style different, even the baseball itself is different in Korea. The American ball could rob Ponce of some of his breaking ball movement.

But this isn’t the same pitcher that was once traded outright Jordan Lyles. Even in relief, Ponce was at 90 mph with the Pirates; now he’s more like 94-97. His condition has improved and he has learned a new change. In his Top 50 Free Agent article, Eric Longenhagen called it “split-looking,” which certainly reflects the hard downfield action of cutting the elevator cables. although it turns out Ponce gets that move from a kick change grab.

I like a good variety.

Despite his new toys and his total dominance over KBO hitters, Ponce was only our number one. 40 overall free agent and our No. 11 free agent starting pitcher. (Our No. 9 starter if you’re not counting Brandon Woodruff And Shota Imanagawhich accepted qualifying offers after the Top 50 list was published.) Our crowdsourced estimates for Ponce’s contract were in the $8 million AAV range for about two years, while Ben Clemens came over the top with a third year at the same AAV. This estimate takes into account all uncertainty about the transition of the KBO.

The Blue Jays, like Cease, came over the top to get their man before the silly season really got underway at the Winter Meetings. But even if Ponce turns out to be just a fifth starter or a mediocre debtor, $10 million a year over three years is basically fine. If he’s anything more than that, this contract is a huge steal.

Consider Fedde, who just expired a two-year, $15 million contract he signed on his way back from Korea. Fedde produced 3.4 WAR across two teams in his first year, and even though the White Sox traded him before the 2024 deadline, they put him in a three-team deal with so many moving parts that I’d rather see if he met his salary.

Fedde was good for one season, then so bad in 2025 that he was traded for nothing, only to be cut by the fourth-place team that had just traded for him. But he made all $15 million from that 3.4 WAR season in 2024.

The bar is higher for Ponce to match his higher salary, but considering what even mediocre starting pitchers can be had for sale these days, it’s not. That much higher. And Ponce’s stuff and his KBO results are on a different level than Fedde’s. It’s fair to expect more.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, they have already replaced their two departing free agent starting pitchers: Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. Ceasing will be at the front of the rotation, with Kevin Gausman and (if his postseason form is a taste of things to come) Trey Yesavage. Ponce gives the Blue Jays an alternative for Jose Berrios at the back of the rotation. Shane Bieber gives Toronto six starting pitchers, plus fellow KBO veteran Eric Lauer as extra depth.

Theoretically, that’s more starting pitching than the Blue Jays need, but if all seven guys are healthy and firing on all cylinders come opening day, I’m sure manager Johannes Schneider will be both surprised and willing to pay the price for some tough conversations about who moves into the bullpen.

We’ll see how the Blue Jays proceed in the future, but this – jumping on elite free agent targets early and taking significant but calculated risks on mid-tier and international guys – is what the big teams do. It’s how you act when you’re more concerned about building the best team possible than getting the best value. It’s not only encouraging that the Blue Jays are acting this way, but that the players they’re targeting are participating.