Polymarket investors are now 79% betting that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, a 69% increase in the past 24 hours that brings political uncertainty back into focus.
The crypto trade prediction market has secured more than $5 million in trading volume, depending on whether a shutdown occurs.
After rising more than 69% in the past day, bettors’ expectations appear to have changed abruptly, with political tensions rising in Washington.
The spike in odds coincides with Democrats’ move to oppose the budget package. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Democrats “would not participate in a vote to initiate consideration” of an appropriations bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Immediately after the comments, betting on a Polymarket close rose.
According to Collin Rugg, a leading US political commentator, the rising odds were highlighted in an X post, noting that they came shortly after Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would “not allow voters to move forward.”
Just in: The odds of a US government shutdown by January 31 rise to 85% on Polymarket after Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Democrats would *not* advance the appropriations bill if DHS funding is included.
“What’s happening in Minnesota is horrible – and in no way unacceptable… pic.twitter.com/RuC7Ylbzvr
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 25, 2026
Trump is certain of a shutdown in the future
US President Donald Trump has also not ruled out a shutdown. In a recent interview with Fox Businesshe said there was “a problem” and noted that this would “very likely lead to another Democratic shutdown.” Such a series of harsh comments from political leaders is fueling market unrest.
According to Schumer, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to curb ICE abuse.
The likelihood of a closure at the end of January increases the uncertainty CLARITY Act expected timeline, which recently came into question and roiled the market after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and some executives withdrew support.
Armstrong’s views on the bill were recently echoed by Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorne. According to Thorne, the bill does not provide a thorough picture of stablecoin returns, which he believes could undermine the competitiveness of the banking sector.
https://t.co/0UTzoROGOg
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) January 24, 2026
Industry observers warn that if the political impasse continues, regulatory uncertainty could increase again.
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