It’s no secret that the Rays operate differently than almost every other team in baseball. They aggressively trade and reshape their roster at almost every opportunity to avoid ever having to rebuild the team, and it’s a system that has been working for quite some time at this point. By Willy Adames Unpleasant Tyler Glasnow Unpleasant Randy Arozarenamost players don’t stay in Tampa long and are traded before they actually get a chance to sniff free agency and walk away for nothing.
The conventional wisdom has long been that as a Rays star approaches freedom, a trade is inevitable. That would apparently mean the end of Brandon Lowetime with the team. He can be retained via an $11.5 million club option in 2026 but will hit free agency after that. Tampa is coming off an 85-loss season in 2025, a concerning sign for a team that hasn’t lost games since 2007. For most clubs, that would further reinforce the need to trade Lowe and focus on the future. That said, the Rays aren’t most clubs. Could they continue to watch where other teams would zigzag and see a tough 2025 season as all the more reason to keep Lowe in the fold?
The 31-year-old is making his second All-Star appearance, but had a fairly typical season by his standards. In 134 games this year, Lowe slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 home runs and 19 doubles. That performance was good for a wRC+ of 114, and he was typically about 15 to 25% better than league average in that regard throughout his career. Pretty much any team that doesn’t have staff Kettle Marte would love to get that kind of offensive production out of the cornerstone, but Lowe’s offense is especially important for Tampa, as he was one of only four above-average hitters on the roster in 2025, alongside Jonathan Aranda, Junior CamineroAnd Yandy Diaz.
That left the Rays as a below-average offensive club despite excellent seasons from both Aranda and Caminero, with a combined wRC+ of 98 as a team. They also ranked in the bottom half of the league in home runs this year, with the aforementioned four players responsible for 115 of the club’s 182 bombs. Tampa’s offense is one that should be added rather than subtracted, and it’s hard to imagine the Rays getting more production from the second base position by trading away Lowe.
If the Rays had an elite option waiting in the wings to take over, like they did when they traded Paredes to clear the deck for Caminero, trading Lowe would be an easy choice. But it’s harder to stick to the typical Tampa playbook when the internal options to replace him are somewhat lackluster. Christopher Morel has not been released since the takeover in the Isaac Paredes trade, and while Carson Williams is a top player with a chance to impact the club in 2026, the Rays would be better served if he could push him Taylor Walls back into a bench role then moving Lowe to make room for him at the keystone. Richie Palacios could be an interesting solution, but moving him to second would only further weaken an outfield that already needs reinforcement.
While the case for keeping Lowe is clear, despite these concerns, there is reason to at least consider trading him. Lowe’s is arguably on a downward spiral right now. His .307 on-base percentage this year was the worst of his career. After running at a reliable rate of over 10% for most of his career, he has now seen his walk rate drop dramatically in consecutive seasons. He went from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.8% and 6.9% in the two most recent campaigns.
This year was his worst defensive season at second base, and an infield with Williams at second base and Walls at shortstop would be a huge improvement defensively. While that combination wouldn’t score as well as Lowe and Williams, an outfield that generated a paltry 85 wRC+ this year would be relatively easy to improve and make up for the loss of Lowe’s bat.
Looking at the team’s situation more broadly, Aranda and Caminero are under team control until 2029 and 2030 respectively, while Williams will be under team control until 2031. That’s an exciting core of young talent, but they’ll need players like Lowe to strengthen them. Pete FairbanksDiaz, Shane McClanahanAnd Drew Rasmussen will leave the organization for the next two seasons. Letting Lowe walk for nothing would be a major risk to the team’s long-term competitive future, especially if the team’s new ownership group isn’t interested in escalating the lowest payroll.
On the other hand, Lowe’s apparent decline could make potential suitors hesitant to give up significant value for him. Installing Lowe in a corner outfield spot, where he has made 50 appearances in his career, would be an alternative way to both alleviate concerns about his defensive ability in the infield and also get more offensive production out of the outfield next year. However, Lowe has not played on the grass since 2022.
The Rays also don’t have as much salary flexibility this offseason as they do most years after their layoff. Hi Seong Kim, Danny JansenAnd Zack Littell from their books during the season. They could even recoup value for Lowe at the deadline if they are able to sell for a third year in a row.
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