Poll: Which team will sign Luke Weaver?

Lucas Weaver entered free agency after pitching a 3.62 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this year as one of the Yankees’ top relievers. He struck out 27.5% of batters for a 7.6% walk rate and ranked 38th among qualified relievers in K-BB percentage. That was a slight step back from his stellar 2024 campaign, when he posted a 2.89 ERA and 23.3% K-BB rate, which ranked 19th among 169 qualified relievers. Still, he was generally productive during his two years in the Bronx and is performing well in free agency.

Weaver’s performance declined noticeably after he was placed on the injured list in June due to a left hamstring strain. After posting a 2.31 ERA in 24 appearances through the end of May, that number rose to 5.31 in 40 appearances after the injury. Meanwhile, his groundball rate dropped from 36.4% in 2024 to just 27.5% this year, putting Weaver in the first percentile, according to Statcast. His flyball percentage also increased nearly ten points to a career-high 56.3%, well above the league average of 38.1% for relievers.

Still, teams will be interested in his strikeout ability and recent pedigree as a high-leverage player, as well as his openness to becoming a starter. We at MLBTR ranked Weaver at No. 41 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a two-year, $18 million contract. Which team will take the plunge? Let’s look at some of the options:

Diamond ridges

Arizona’s relievers ranked 28th in the league with a combined fWAR of -0.3 in 2025, and their ERA of 4.82 ranked 27th. While Shelby Miller And Andreas Saalfrank posted ERAs under 2.00 in 36 1/3 and 29 innings respectively, most other relievers ranged from unspectacular to below average. Jalen Beeks was the lone qualified reliever of the pack, posting a 3.74 ERA in 55 1/3 innings. The bullpen’s K-BB rate of 11.2% was higher than only the Nationals and Rockies. Weaver, who pitched for the Diamondbacks from 2019-2022, would help immensely with the strikeouts, although Chase Field’s hitter-friendly environment may not be so ideal given his now extreme flyball tendencies. On the other hand, the club is known to be interested in starting pitchers, so it’s possible they could sign Weaver and give him a shot in the rotation.

Sailors

The Mariners’ bullpen was middle of the pack in 2025, with a 3.2 fWAR that ranked 17th in the league and an ERA of 3.72 that ranked 9th (albeit with half of their games coming in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park). Andrés Munoz, Gabe SpeierAnd Matt Brash all posted ERAs below 2.70 with strong peripheral metrics, including strikeout rates above 29.0%. Beyond those three and Eduard Bazardothe device could use a little more depth. Carlos Vargas threw 77 innings in 2025, but was worth -0.6 fWAR thanks to a poor 16.3% strikeout rate and weak peripherals. Trent Thornton, Collin SniderAnd Casey Legumina totaled 117 1/3 innings, but all three had ERAs over 4.50. Reuniting with Weaver (he pitched 13 1/3 innings for Seattle in 2023) would improve the bullpen’s strikeout prowess, while spacious T-Mobile Park could provide cover for his flyball tendencies.

Orioles

Baltimore’s bullpen ranked 23rd with a collective 1.9 fWAR and 25th with a 4.57 ERA. Keegan Akin And Yennier Cano were the team’s only qualified relievers, and Akin was worth -0.6 fWAR, while Cano had an ERA of 5.11 (albeit with an xERA of 3.59). Seranthony Dominguez had a 3.24 ERA and a 30.9% strikeout rate in 41 2/3 innings, but he was traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Felix Bautista had a 35.2% strikeout rate and 50.7% groundball rate in 34 2/3 innings before undergoing surgery in August to repair a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum. In the best case scenario, he won’t return until September 2026. It is known that Baltimore is looking for an experienced closer. A Weaver signing could make sense given his track record of success in the AL East.

Cubs

Cubs relievers ranked 19th in the league with a combined 3.1 fWAR and ranked 14th with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Daniel PalenciaAnd Drew Pomeranz led the unit in innings pitched and all had ERAs under 3.00, but Keller, Thielbar and Pomeranz are now free agents. Andrew Kittredge posted a well-above-average K-BB rate of 35.4% in 21 2/3 innings after being acquired at the deadline, but he was traded back to the Orioles in November. The club saw beyond those pitchers Chris Flexen, Ryan PressleyAnd Porter Hodge combine for 114 innings. Flexen had a solid ERA but ugly peripheral numbers and is now a free agent. Pressly was disappointing in his age-36 season and is also a free agent, while Hodge posted a 6.27 ERA and walked 12.2% of batters. A signing of Weaver would add an experienced, high-leverage arm behind Palencia, while still leaving room for additions elsewhere.

Where do MLBTR readers think Bader will land this offseason? Cast your vote in the poll below:

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images