The Tigers lost a heartbreaker in Game 5 of the ALDS when they fell to the Mariners in 15 innings. Detroit was considered one of the best teams – if not the best team – in baseball through the first half, but slumped to a 34-43 record as of early July. They lost control of the AL Central despite holding an 11.5-game lead on August 23, but they managed to put away the Guardians in the AL Wild Card Series even after ceding the division crown to them just days earlier.
It’s easy to argue that without Ace, Detroit wouldn’t have made the postseason at all Pull Skubalthe reigning AL Cy Young winner and 2025 Cy Young frontrunner. Over the past two seasons, Skubal has put up numbers that few pitchers can match – 387 1/3 innings, 2.30 ERA, 31.2 K%, 4.5 BB% – and he has been essential to both of Detroit’s playoff games over the past two years.
However, Skubal won’t be around forever. He is scheduled to enter free agency during the 2026-2027 offseason. With just $28.3 million on the books in guaranteed contracts through 2027 according to Grid sourceit can be argued that the Tigers should do whatever it takes to extend Skubal or re-sign him in free agency. However, an expansion does not seem likely. If Skubal has a season similar to his 2024-25 campaigns, he could rightfully aim to set a new record among starting pitchers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s $325 million deal with the Dodgers remains the current target after a narrow lead Gerrit Kool‘s $324 million deal with the Yankees.
The Tigers have never spent more on a player than they have Miguel Cabrerawhich they signed in 2014 to an eight-year, $248 million extension. The Tigers in recent years haven’t come close to the kind of total spending they put up during the 2016-17 seasons, when they had a payroll of around $200 million.
Would the Tigers be willing to sign a franchise record deal to keep their asset? Asked about the issue after his season ended, Skubal himself told the Tigers’ club that his job is “to go out there and play” and that such conversations are better left to the front office (via Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). However, president of baseball operations Scott Harris is not publicly handballing one way or the other.
“Listen, I completely understand the question and understand that you have to ask me,” Harris said at the end-of-season press conference when asked about Skubal’s future.video linkwith the Skubal question landing around 4 p.m.). “I’ve learned over time, especially with this question, that general comments are often chopped up and forced into stories. I can’t comment on the trades of our players. I can’t comment on free agents, and I can’t comment on other teams’ players. So I’m going to respond by just not commenting on it. Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second time. wins consecutive years. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.” That’s all I can say about that.”
Fans of other clubs are understandably fascinated by the idea of seeing their favorite clubs involved in a Skubal transaction. You could argue that if the Tigers don’t believe a long-term deal is possible, they would be better off prioritizing the long-term health of the organization rather than a win-at-all-costs mentality in 2026.
It goes without saying that having Skubal at the front of the team rotation would give Detroit the best chance to win a championship next year. In addition to his dominant regular season work, he was a threat in the postseason with a 2.04 ERA, 1.92 FIP and a 37.8% strikeout rate in his six starts. Skubal has not only been essential to the Tigers reaching October over the past two years, but he has also managed to shine when the lights are brightest.
Zooming out to look at the larger Tigers organization, it appears that Detroit may not be particularly close to full power just yet. Star pitching prospect Jackson Jobe made just 10 starts this year before being sidelined by Tommy John surgery, which will likely eliminate his entire 2026 campaign. Even excluding Jobe, the Tigers bring with them a number of promising top talents who will make their big league debuts in the coming years. Short stop Kevin McGonigle is considered one of the sport’s top 10 prospects and should find his way to the majors next year. Outfield prospect Max Clark is also often ranked as a top-10 player in the entire league while being a catcher Jose Briceno and short stop Bryce Rainer are usually considered top-50 talents.
That emerging crop of youngsters could work with Jobe and the team’s existing young core to produce a behemoth that can compete for years to come. Riley Greene, Kerry CarpenterAnd Spencer Torkelson are all monitored through 2028, while Reese Olson will be monitored until 2029, Dillon dangles will be in the city until 2030 and Colt Keith is locked up until 2032.
Proponents of a trade would argue that Skubal would attract the kind of high-end talent that could help replace not only Skubal himself, but other key veterans like Casey Mize, Gleyber TorresAnd Jake Rogers. On the other hand, the Tigers already have a vaunted farming system and know all too well how uncertain the future of even elite prospects can be.
Not long ago, Mize and Torkelson were as highly regarded as McGonigle and Clark are now. They’ve both contributed to the 2025 team, but neither has proven to be the kind of franchise-defining player the Tigers hoped to get when they were both drafted No. 1 overall. Even Skubal battled through four seasons of injuries and mediocrity before finding superstar form last year.
How do MLBTR readers think the Tigers should move forward with Skubal this winter? Should they trade him to build up for the future or should they maximize the 2026 even without guarantees that they will sign him long-term? Have your say in the poll below:
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