After spending a huge amount of money to lure Juan Soto Against Queens, president of baseball operations David Stearns seemed reluctant to target the top free agent starters too aggressively and instead focused on mid-level and rebound arms. Clay Holmes converted from the bullpen to the rotation, New York took a flier Frankie Montas after a weak 2024, and the big addition was a reunion with Rome Petson. The strategy didn’t work. Holmes did fine and delivered a solid mid-rotation performance, but Montas barely pitched and produced atrocious results when he did, while Manaea was limited to just 15 appearances and was moved to the bullpen late in the year amid his own struggles.
On paper, the Mets enter the offseason with a full rotation for 2026: Holmes, Manaea and right-hander Kodai Senga are all under contract, and verifiable weapons such as David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Jonah TongAnd Brandon Sproat give the team more than enough weapons to fill out a rotation. McLean is widely viewed as a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm, but it would be risky to rely on him being a top prospect after just eight MLB starts. Tong and Sproat are even less established with lower ceilings, and Holmes, Manaea and Peterson each fit better in the middle to back of a team’s rotation.
Outside of McLean, Senga has the highest ceiling of any of the club’s starting pitching options. In 52 starts with the Mets over the past three years, he pitched a 3.00 ERA and a 3.82 FIP with a 26.8% strikeout rate. Those are pretty impressive numbers overall, and on paper it looks like the Mets can count on McLean and Senga as a potential rotation duo next year.
However, that only seems to be the case on paper. After a strong rookie season in the Majors, Senga missed all but one start in 2024 due to shoulder and calf problems. He returned to the mound in 2025 and looked like his old self early, posting a 1.47 ERA and 3.24 FIP over 73 2/3 innings of work through mid-June. However, he missed a month due to a hamstring injury that ended that stretch, and when he returned he looked like a shell of himself. He pitched to a 5.90 ERA with a 5.76 FIP over his final nine appearances of the year, striking out just 20.6% of his opponents and walking 12.7%. He pitched into the sixth inning just once in that time and failed to complete the fifth inning in six of those starts.
Things got bad enough for Senga that he was optioned to Triple-A in early September, a move he agreed to. Even with the club’s Syracuse affiliate, he struggled to a 4.66 ERA in two starts before his season ended in mid-September. Last month, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com indicated that the Mets don’t know what to expect from Senga in 2026. Even if they had made the playoffs, Senga would only have been activated for the playoff roster if the club had suffered multiple injuries during the rotation. It’s harder to know if a pitcher who turns 33 in January will bounce back than it is for a younger arm. Stearns’ postseason words about Senga weren’t exactly a vote of confidence either:
“Kodai has had two very inconsistent, challenging years in a row,” said Stearns, as relayed by DiComo. “We know it’s there. We know there’s potential. We’re going to do everything we can to get it out of him. But look, can we ink him if he makes 30 starts next year? I think that would be foolish.”
So, with more starting pitchers than they have room for and the desire to land more surefire options, would the Mets consider a trade for Senga? It’s possible that a change of scenery could make sense for both parties. Senga would prefer to make a fresh start in 2026 with a club that can provide him with a more reliable rotation spot than the Mets could possibly do, and New York could see a trade as a way to strengthen their pipeline of young talent during an offseason where they may want to get aggressive in the trade market to improve the rotation.
The Mets haven’t been a team concerned with sky-high payrolls under Steve Cohen, but if they do have the desire to reduce payroll costs to a less extreme level this winter, parting with a $15 million hit in luxury tax money could also be attractive. On the other hand, it would be difficult to part with Senga’s potential. He has clearly shown that he is capable of being a top-caliber arm in the first half of this season. If the right-hander manages to get back on track elsewhere, it would be a tough pill for the Mets to swallow.
While Senga’s deep struggles and uncertain future could make the Mets willing to listen to offers on Senga, his potential could lead them to keep the asking price for his services quite high. Perhaps a deal should be worked out with a team willing to bet on Senga and surrender a controllable position player in an area of need such as first base or center field for the Mets. The Red Sox stand out with an intriguing offense Triston Casas‘s own uncertain future and high upside, not to mention the rumblings that have linked Boston to Mets slugger Pete Alonso in free agency.
How do MLBTR readers think the Mets will approach Senga this season? Will they try to keep him in line even as he approaches his mid-30s with no guarantees he’ll bounce back? Or could they look to move him this winter to strengthen the squad in other areas and avoid that risk? Have your say in the poll below:
#Poll #Mets #trade #Kodai #Senga