After getting all the way back to .500 to kick off 2026, the Flames fell off a cliff in January. Combined with sending their best defenseman to Vegas, the team has taken quite a few hits in recent weeks. After another loss last night, the Flames are now looking at a double-digit gap between them and the playoffs. Is it finally time for the Flames to embrace the tank?
Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames organization called their rocky start nothing more than a blip. However, after yesterday’s games, the Flames are now eleven points away from the play-offs, with one game remaining.
Current NHL standings
After a 3-8-2 stretch to start the new year, the Flames have fallen all the way to 31st in the NHL, a spot they haven’t been in in over a month.
| Team | File | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Jets | 21-25-7 | .462 |
| New York Rangers | 22-27-6 | .455 |
| St. Louis blues | 20-25-9 | .454 |
| Calgary flames | 21-26-6 | .453 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 18-31-5 | .380 |
As mentioned, the Flames have fallen into the bottom three of the NHL. They have also created a lead for themselves in the bottom five as they move three points clear of sixth place. Their 26 regular season losses rank third in the entire league, behind only the Rangers and the terrible Canucks. Their 21 wins are tied for the second-lowest total in the league, ahead of only the Canucks.
Speaking of the Canucks, they’ve pretty much earned the best lottery odds, but it’s still an incredibly tight race for the penultimate spot. The New York Rangers have fallen off a cliff and announced a rebuild, while the Blues also continue to pile up losses. At this point, the Flames will have a hard time finishing last in the league, but second to last is theirs for the taking.
On the way to the play-offs
The question now becomes: does the organization really believe this team still has a shot at the playoffs? Where the Flames are in the standings would indicate that the playoffs are almost impossible to reach at this point. With only 29 games to go, time is running out. That said, this is the Calgary Flames we’re talking about. Until the playoffs are a mathematical impossibility, they will believe they have a chance.
Going into the season, we used the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs this season. However, because the Western Conference is just as bad as it was in 2025-26, the playoff cutoff will be much lower this season. Based on The Athletic modelthe second wildcard team in the West is currently on pace for about 91 points.
| Point% in last 29 games | Points total at the end of the season |
|---|---|
| .741 (point pace needed for 91 points) | 91 |
| .677 (Calgary Flames in 21-22) | 87 |
| .453 (point pace in 2025-26) | 74 |
Calling up Murray Edwards. While the Flames aren’t technically eliminated yet, they might as well be. The playoffs seem so far away right now that it would take a modern miracle for this team to sneak in.
If the Flames continued to play at their pace for the entire season, they would finish with just 74 points. No less than 17 points outside the play-offs. If they were to somehow magically replicate the 2021-2022 teams’ elite .677 pace for the remaining 29 games, they would finish with 87 points. That would likely leave them a few wins short of making the playoffs. If you’ve watched the Flames this season, you know there’s no way they’re going to play at the same pace as the big 2021-2022 team.
To reach the current mark of 91 points, this team would have to play at a .741 pace through the final 29 games of the season. For context, the only team playing at that pace or better this season is the Colorado Avalanche. In the past two decades, there have only been seven teams that have played at a .741 or better pace in a season.
On his way to a top-five pick
Now let’s look at the reverse and see where the Flames could end up in the draft lottery based on how the next 29 games go. The Flames’ recent losing streak at the start of 2026 has them back in prime position for a top five pick in July.
According to the Athletic model, it currently follows last place in the NHL, finishing with about 64 points. The third last is on pace for 74 points, and the fifth last is on pace for 77 points.
| Point% in last 29 games | Points total at the end of the season |
|---|---|
| .453 (current pace) | 74 |
| .500 | 77 |
Don’t look now, but a top-five selection in the 2026 draft is starting to look very likely. Even if the Flames managed to reach a .500 record over their final 29 games, they would still finish with just 77 points. That would likely have them picked fifth overall in July.
If they continued at their current .453 pace for the remaining 29 games, they would likely be left with about 74 points. While that won’t be bad enough to pass the Canucks for last place, it would still put them firmly in the top three of the draft, possibly even the top two. That would be a huge win for a team in desperate need of an elite forward.
It’s time to embrace the tank
As we enter the latter part of the 2025-2026 season, the Flames have firmly established themselves as one of the worst teams in the NHL. While it’s still early and this team could easily put up a close fight and improve the standings, a top-five selection at the 2026 draft is starting to look like a very likely ending to this miserable season.
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