After getting all the way back to .500 to kick off 2026, the Flames have now dropped five of their last six games and fallen all the way back in the NHL standings. After a crushing loss last night, they are once again several wins away from the playoffs, and yet the playoff or tank debate rages on for Flames fans.
Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames were able to get back on track in December, at one point coming within a few points of a playoff spot. However, after yesterday’s games, the Flames are now seven points away from the play-offs, with one game remaining. Is it time for the Flames to finally admit defeat?
Current NHL standings
After falling so close to the bottom five of the NHL standings last week, the Flames’ recent 1-5 streak has moved them back into the bottom five of the NHL standings for the time being.
| Team | File | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 20-22-6 | .479 |
| St. Louis blues | 18-21-8 | .468 |
| Calgary flames | 19-23-4 | .457 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 18-22-5 | .456 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 16-25-5 | .402 |
The Flames have fallen to the bottom three in the NHL and are just one point behind second-to-last place. They have also created a bit of a cushion for themselves in the bottom five, as they are now four points clear of sixth place. Their 23 regular-season losses are the second-worst in the league, behind only the dreadful Canucks who have lost 25 in regular regulation.
Speaking of the Canucks, they continue to project themselves as the NHL’s worst team after losing nine of their last 10 games. There’s also a new dog in the race, as the New York Rangers have fallen off a cliff since Igor Shesterkin went down with an injury. Right now, the Flames are still very much in the running for last place, but the Canucks are slowly making a run for it and the Rangers could soon be a serious contender.
On the way to the play-offs
The question now becomes: does the organization really believe this team still has a shot at the playoffs? Where the Flames are in the standings would indicate the playoffs are a lost cause. With only 36 games to go, time is running out. That said, this is the Calgary Flames we’re talking about. Until the playoffs are a mathematical impossibility, they will believe they have a chance.
Going into the season, we used the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs this season. However, with the Western Conference being as bad as it has been this year, the playoff cutoff will be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic modelthe second wildcard team in the West is currently on pace for just 84 points.
| Point% in last 36 games | Points total at the end of the season |
|---|---|
| .529 (point pace since November 1) | 80 |
| .457 (points pace in 2025-26) | 75 |
For the first time in a few weeks, the play-offs seem out of reach. With the Flames in December, it looked like the playoffs were a very real possibility if they kept this up. In short, they didn’t. A 1-5 record in 2026 will do that. Since November 1, they have now fallen to a percentage of 0.529 points, a total that is not nearly good enough to erase their historically bad October.
If the Flames want to sneak into the playoffs, they need to play at a better pace than their 17-15-2 record since Nov. 1. That seems like a tall order for a team that hasn’t posted a winning streak of more than three games all season. Given the looming loss of Rasmus Andersson in the coming weeks, that task will become even more difficult.
If they played at their full-season pace the rest of the year, they would finish with around 75 points and nowhere near the playoffs. If they hope to reach the play-off limit of 84 points, they will need to collect 42 of the remaining 72 points available. That equates to a .583 point pace over the next 36 games.
On his way to a top-five pick
Now let’s look at the inverse and see where the Flames could end up in the draft lottery based on how the next 36 games go. The Flames’ recent losses have pushed them back into the running for a top-three draft selection in July.
According to the Athletic model, last place in the NHL currently follows around 70 points. The third last is on pace for 76 points, and the fifth last is on pace for 80 points.
| Point% in last 36 games | Points total at the end of the season |
|---|---|
| .457 (current pace) | 75 |
| .500 | 78 |
There is another top-three selection on the menu. By losing five of their last six games, the Flames are once again in a good spot for a top three pick in July. It’s still far from a guarantee, but more losses mean more points in the race for first place in the overall standings.
If they continued at a .457 pace for the remaining 36 games, they would finish with about 75 points. While that probably wouldn’t be bad enough for last place, it would still put them firmly in the top five of the draft, possibly even the top three. That would be a huge win for a team in desperate need of an elite forward.
If they played exactly .500 hockey the rest of the time, which seems likely considering they are the Calgary Flames, they would finish the year with 78 points. If you use the projection from The Athletic’s models, 78 points will likely give you a range of four to five on draft. Again, that would be a huge win for the Flames, even if it isn’t the coveted top three pick.
It’s time to admit defeat
As we enter the second half of the 2025-2026 season, the Flames remain in the bottom five of the NHL standings. Despite getting back to .500 at the start of the year, they have now fallen all the way to third-last in the NHL. With only 36 games left on the schedule, it’s time for the organization to admit that this season isn’t going anywhere and that the top of the 2026 draft should be the goal.
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