Playoffs or draft lottery: Can the Calgary Flames continue to inch closer to a playoff spot? – The Win Column

The Calgary Flames’ hot streak continued last week, bringing their record to 4-1-1 in their last six. That’s points in five out of six games, something that seemed impossible in October. Thus, the Flames are now just five points away from a spot in the play-offs, albeit with two extra games played. Given the recent shift in results, do the playoffs look like a real possibility again? Let’s see.

Current NHL standings

As mentioned, the Flames are now somehow only five points ahead of the playoffs. That said, they are still in the basement of the NHL at the same time.

Even with the Flames picking up points in five of their last six, they still rank second to last in the NHL, ahead of only the awful Predators. However, they finally crossed the 0.400 point threshold, so that’s at least a win. Their five wins in their last 10 are also the most of any bottom five team at the moment.

On the way to the play-offs

So if the organization still believes the playoffs are still possible, what do the Flames need to do in the remaining 55 games to get there? Well, the outlook actually looks worse than it did a week ago, following two losses to Tampa Bay and Carolina.

For this exercise, let’s assume that 97 points is the playoff limit this year, as that was the organization’s very stated goal for the year. Here are some different outcomes and how close they would leave the Flames to the playoffs.

The Flames’ playoff hopes remain out of reach considering how well they’ll have to play the rest of the way to sneak in. Even with a recent stretch of .750 hockey over six games, they would still need to play .677 hockey in the remaining 55 games to even get 96 points and a wild card spot.

If you’ve watched the Flames this year, you know how unsustainable their recent stretch has been, so counting on them to play .677 hockey over the next four months seems like a tall order. Only four teams in the entire NHL have played at that pace so far this season: the Avalanche, the Stars, the Lightning and the Hurricanes.

If they managed to match their points pace from last season (.595), when they almost made the playoffs, they would still be nowhere near the playoffs with just 87 points at the end of the year. That pace would probably still leave them about 10 points out of the playoffs.

On his way to a top-five pick

Now let’s look at the inverse and see where the Flames could end up in the draft lottery based on various results for the rest of the season. Their recent run has hurt their chances a bit, but make no mistake, this is still a bottom feeder team.

For context, the bottom five in the NHL last year ranged from 52 points in dead last to 76 points in fifth last to 82 points in 10th last.

Even with a hot stretch lately, the Flames still seem destined for a bottom five spot. If they continue to play at the same pace for the rest of the season, they will end the year with only 67 points. That total would have been good for third in the NHL in 2024-25.

If the Flames played .500 hockey the rest of the way, they would still manage to finish with just 77 points. That would have put them in seventh place in 2024-25, and just one point out of fourth. In other words, mediocre hockey for the next 55 games will still ultimately lead to a top six or seven draft pick.

Signs of a turnaround?

Even with a hot streak lately, the Flames’ playoff hopes remain incredibly slim. Unless the team continues their play over the final 55 games, a bottom-10 finish for the Flames and a lottery spot still seems likely. despite what ownership would have you believe.

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