Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Bucs could spend between $30 million and $40 million on their 2026 payroll. That’s on the higher end of what they’ve spent in previous seasons. They spent just over $30 million in free agency for the 2023 and 2024 campaigns. That dropped to about $20 million last winter. They haven’t signed a multi-year free agent contract in almost a decade. Their $10.5 million signing Aroldis Chapman during the 2023-2024 offseason is the only eight-figure free agent deal of the Cherington era.
Pittsburgh has paid off the remaining four years and $36 million in the bank Ke’Bryan Hayes contract in their deadline trade with Cincinnati. Act David Bednar to the Yankees deducted an arbitration salary that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects at $9 million. The Bucs have committed $30.5 million Mitch Keller And Bryan Reynolds next season. They will likely spend somewhere between $12 and $15 million on their arbitration class. They started last season with a player salary of around $88 million, so it stands to reason they could add something like $30-40 million to that. That would leave them a bit shy of last season’s level before factoring in $10-15 million in minimum salary players to round out the roster.
The bigger factor could be whether the Pirates will more aggressively pursue free agents on multi-year deals. Cherington told MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald in August that the Bucs have made multi-year offers over the years, but none have been accepted. They haven’t signed a free agent since who turned down a qualifying offer Francisco Liriano in 2014.
It would be a surprise if they break that trend Gleyber Torres or Trent Grishamalthough in theory they have the payroll space to accommodate a three- or four-year deal for any of those players if they want to concentrate the majority of their resources in one acquisition. Hi Seong Kim, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn And Harrison Bader are borderline candidates for a two- or three-year contract – and none were tagged with the QO. Mike Yastrzemski, Carlo Mullins And Max Kepler could sign one-year contracts at the high end of what Pittsburgh has spent in previous seasons.
It’s also possible the Bucs leverage their starting pitching on the trade market. Dealing Keller would take another $16.5 million off the books and likely bring back one or two mid-tier hitters. They could trade Mike Burrows or Thomas Harrington for a similarly controllable bat that has shown some promise. Cherington and his group can look to just about any position for offensive help. Spencer Horwitz is set at the lion’s share of playing time at first base. Oneil Cruz will be somewhere in the outfield, probably in center, while Reynolds will be in right field. Pretty much nothing else is set in stone, though it’s a top prospect Connor Griffin especially projects like the long-term answer at shortstop.
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