Colts and Falcons look to bounce back in Germany
The NFL returns abroad this week as the Falcons and Colts face off in Berlin, with both teams desperate to bounce back from their losses. Atlanta comes in on a three-game skid but brings the league’s best passing defense, allowing just 158.1 yards per game.
The Colts, meanwhile, are getting a defensive boost with newly acquired players Sauce Garner removed from the concussion protocol. The model shows no clear lead over the +6.5 spread or the 48.5 total, both with a 50% probability. It is striking that every international competition this year has remained below this specific total.
We would expect a ground-oriented game like the Falcons are trying to get Sesame Robinson going, staying under 100 yards in three straight games, but facing a Colts defense that is allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game.
Our best TD value is Tyler Allgeier at 28.6% and odds of +330 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
🏈 Colts-Falcons full game prediction
Garrett Wilson returns after Jets fire sale
All signs point to the Jets WR returning after suffering a knee injury in Week 6
He is projected to have 58.9 receiving yards on 5.0 receptions, with a 32.9% chance of scoring a touchdown – no other Jets WR tops 30 receiving yards or a 20% TD chance.
Wilson will have to deal with the Browns’ fifth-ranked passing defense, which has been tough on receivers this season, but with little competition in the Jets’ passing game, he remains a key player to watch when he returns at full strength.
🏈 Best Bets, Props and Picks for Browns vs. Jets
James Cook is listed as doubtful
Accounts RB James Cook suffered an ankle/foot injury this week.
His status remains uncertain, and if he can’t play, the Bills will likely rely on him Ray Davis And Ty Johnson in the backfield.
Our projections currently keep Cook in the mix, predicting 87.3 rushing yards and a 56.9% TD probability, with Johnson and Davis each projecting a sub-20% probability and 12 rushing yards, although Johnson also projects some receiving targets.
If Cook sits, both backups have a chance against a Dolphins defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
🏈 Bills-Dolphins Player Prop Projections
NFL best bets for week 10
Our highest probability and lead are discussed weekly in the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcastand the rules in this article stand at 8-8 so far this season.
Below you’ll find the current highest probability and best edge from our best NFL betting odds, along with our best TD prop of the weekend, with some extra value for that player to score as well.
Bet: Browns ML @ Jets (-130 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Cleveland opened as underdogs but is now -1.5 favorites after New York’s roster shake-up get a 60.2% chance of winning from the Dimers modelwhich identifies a 4.4% lead.
The Browns defense has given up just three rushing touchdowns all season, and this could be another long day for Justin Fields, who has already been sacked 22 times this year.
Cleveland’s pass rush, led by Myles Garrett coming off a 5-sack game, should make it difficult for the Jets to extend long drives, while the Jets defense has struggled to generate turnovers, with only one takeaway all season.
The model also shows a 58% chance for the Browns to cover, and with ML plays becoming increasingly popular, there is confidence in this spot.
🏈 Browns vs. Jets Complete Game Predictions
Betting Odds: Jaguars ML @ Texans (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jacksonville defeated Houston 17-10 earlier this year and needs a win to stay alive in the AFC South. 57.4% chance of winning of the Dimers model with a lead of 2.5% at odds of -122.
The Texans will be without CJ Stroud (concussion), meaning Davis Mills will get the start and he’s thrown for fewer than 150 yards in his last three starting or injury replacement appearances.
It won’t be easy for Jacksonville, as Houston’s defense is among the best in the league, with a top-six ranking in the league and the lowest completion percentage and passer rating for opposing QBs.
Texas games were lost in six of the eight, and our model expects this total (37.5) to fall just below that number again.
With Nick Chubb in foul trouble, Woody Marks could lead Houston’s backfield with 49 yards and a 29% touchdown probability, while Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz both fall under their posted totals.
🏈 Jaguars-Texans full game prediction
Highest TD Target: Dallas Goedert (Eagles) vs. Packers
As revealed on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, our best touchdown value of the week Dallas Goedertfacing a Packers defense that ranks 29th in red zone efficiency against tight ends.
He draws a 36.6% chance to score the TD with a 6.8% lead at odds of +235, as well as a 3.9% chance to score first at odds of +2500.
Goedert has the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL with 7 and is a force in the red zone.
Jalen Hurts also has solid value for both 1+ and 2+ TDs, which is a Combination Pain/Goodness one of our favorite plays on the slate.
🏈 Full game preview for Packers vs. Eagles
Week 10 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick ‘Em Plays
Finally, we’ll wrap up with a few looks at which teams might make good choices for your Survivor or Pick ’em competitions.
We’ve suffered some setbacks over the past two weeks, but if you’re still in your league and looking for a pick, we’ll continue to offer our top picks to those still in their Survivor pools.
To see these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL instant picks article.
Most likely NFL winners right away
1️⃣ Bills (78%) @ Dolphins
2️⃣ Seahawks (73%) vs. Cardinals
3️⃣ Lions (72%) @ Commanders
4️⃣ Foals (72%) versus Falcons
5️⃣ Panthers (72%) vs. Saints
Editor’s Choice: Let’s take the Bills who need to stay in the race with the Patriots for the AFC East.
Previous choices: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 lions ✅ WK6 stallions ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️ | WK9 Packers ✖️
Highest spread odds (choose them)
1️⃣ Browns -1.5 (58%) @ Jets
2️⃣ Packers -1.5 (58%) vs. Eagles
3️⃣ Commanders +8.5 (57%) vs. Lions
4️⃣ 49ers +4.5 (54%) vs. Rams
5️⃣ Vikings +4.5 (54%) @ Ravens
Editor’s Choice: The Dimers model’s best guess is that the Browns win, so have them cover just one more point against the Jets.
Previous choices: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️| WK6 Falcons +5 ✅ | WK7 Panthers -1.5 ✅ | WK8 Cowboys +3.5 ✖️ | WK9 Cowboys -2.5 ✖️
Dimers’ NFL betting odds for the 2025-2026 season
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