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The regular season finale is here and PFF’s analysts have laid out their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
The tool provides real-time projections, matchup data, hit percentages, and the best available odds, all in one place. It’s the same level of insight that all 32 NFL teams rely on, now at your fingertips.
Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for Week 18’s Sunday list. Their picks have gone 49-49-4 through 17 weeks.
Trevor Sikkema (9-8)
QB Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-250 FanDuel)
Sanders has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last seven games. While the Bengals’ defense has shown improvement of late, Cincinnati’s offense has ranked in the top 10 the past three weeks and has scored more than 30 points in four of the last five games. That play script should force Cleveland to keep pace through the air, giving Sanders plenty of opportunities to find the end zone as a passer.
Dalton Wasserman (9-8)
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: Over 3.5 rush attempts (-150 Bet MGM)
Williams has recorded at least four rushing attempts in 13 of his 16 starts this season, and with playoff seeding on the line, Ben Johnson has made it clear the Bears will play to win. Detroit’s defense has the second-highest man coverage percentage in the NFL, a look that often creates opportunities for quarterbacks on pass plays. If this game turns into the shootout that it should be, Williams should be prepared to put it on the line – both as a runner and as a passer – to secure a win against his head coach’s former team.
Ben Linsey (12-5)
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans: Under 67.5 rushing yards (-114 Draftkings)
I expect this line to rise as we get closer to Sunday, with Pollard developing into one of the more popular “contract incentive” stories in Week 18. If that number rises, the better value should come closer to kickoff at the bottom end, and that’s how I want to approach it.
Pollard only needs 66 rushing yards to cash in on a $250,000 incentive, but this will be a tricky situation. Tennessee comes in as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, a game script that makes it difficult to gain sustained rushing volume.
Mason Cameron (6-10-1)
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Pittsburgh Steelers: over 2.5 receptions (+115)
With DK Metcalf suspended for the final two games of the regular season, Aaron Rodgers leaned heavily on Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 17, targeting the veteran wideout eight times. Valdes-Scantling tied for the team lead in routes run and paced all Steelers receivers with a target percentage of 19.1%. While his role in Pittsburgh has been limited overall, the old Rodgers target is still at a high level, with a 68% separation rate that ranks third among all NFL wide receivers this season.
The matchup also works in his favor. Baltimore has allowed the third-most receptions to wide receivers this year (146), where Valdes-Scantling does the most damage. The Ravens are also one of only eight defenses to allow 150 or more open targets to wide receivers, setting up MVS with plenty of room to operate again.
Max Chadwick (7-8-2)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 4.5+ receptions (+100 FanDuel)
Robinson has long been a weapon as a receiver in Atlanta’s backfield, but his usage has skyrocketed in recent weeks, with 20 receptions in his last three games. This matchup sets up another strong receiving performance. Robinson leads the NFL in target rate against the blitz, and New Orleans sends extra pass rushers at the seventh-fastest rate in the league, creating a natural funnel for checkdowns and designed touches in the passing game.
Gordon McGuinness (6-10-1)
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: 5.5+ receptions (+132 FanDuel)
McCaffrey has already achieved that number 10 times this season, including a nine-catch-to-10-goal performance against Seattle in Week 1. While only three of those overs have come in his past seven games, the matchup remains ideal: the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL against this prop. The only real concern is McCaffrey’s questionable status, but if he suits up, his role and target volume should be enough to push him over this line.
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