This year the Sunland Park Derby took place Pavlovian triumph by the nose and pass the leader Express child on the wire. In terms of speed, Pavlovian still has a long way to go before he’s considered a threat to the top contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but he does have two things in his favor. One is that he seems to be improving quickly, and the other is that he seems likely to be suited to longer distances.
That said, Pavlovian actually debuted at 4 1/2 furlongs, despite a pedigree and a stride that suggest distance will be his strong suit, and finished second in a Cal-bred special weight at Santa Anita Park last May. The next time he asked he ran a similar race over 5 furlongs, then ran a distant second behind Desert Gate in the Best Pal Stakes (G3). Off the board in the I’m Smokin Stakes, and second in a state-bred allowance event, Pavlovian released his runner at the start of the Golden State Juvenile Stakes, then ended his first campaign with a fourth in another state-bred event, the King Glorious Stakes. This season he prepared for the Sunland Park Derby with a third-place finish in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby, his first start after a mile.
Although the homebred Reddam Racing does not have a fashionable pedigree, there are plenty of connections with classic distance ability. Pavlovian’s father, Pavel only started in July of this three-year-old season, but he quickly proved to be a top-class performer by a total of six lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes (G3) in his third career start. He followed that effort with a third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1). Pavel remained in training and ran 12 more times at 4 and 5. He won only one of those races, but that was the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), which he won by 3 3/4 lengths, and he also finished second, albeit 12 lengths behind Accelerate, in the Pacific Classic Stakes (G1). Located at the Ocean Breeze Ranch near Bonsall, California, the gray is responsible for 46 foals, 38 starters and one other stakes winner, 2023 Soviet Problem Stakes scorer Madison Rae, from three crops of three-year-olds and older.
READ: Reddam homebred Pavlovian sparks Derby hopes
Pavel is the best runner for his sire, the Giant’s Causeway horse Creative Cause, who won the Norfolk Stakes (G1) and Best Pal Stakes (G2) in 2011, and the San Felipe Stakes (G2) in 2012. He has also been placed in Grade 1 four times, including a third in the Preakness Stakes (G1). He finished fifth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, beating just three lengths to I’ll Have Another, who was ridden by Reddam.
Pavlovian’s mother, Mandy’s Grace, was a winner over the mile and a half and is the mother of three winners from her first four runners. She is a daughter of Bellamy Road, who started favorite for the Kentucky Derby in 2005 after a stunning 17 1/2 length victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), setting a new track record. In the Derby, Bellamy Road followed extremely demanding factions closely, briefly hitting the front in the stretch before dropping to seventh. Bellamy Road came out of the race with what was described as a minor bone problem (a splint bone separated from the cannon bone). Despite this, he was back for the Travers Stakes (G1), where he finished a hard-fought second to Flower Alley, in what turned out to be his final appearance.
Pavlovian’s second dam, Storm Cat’s daughter, Magicalmysterycat, was a precocious juvenile who captured the Landaluce Stakes (G2), Schuylerville Stakes (G2), Valley Stream Stakes and Cinderella Stakes at 2 years old. Magicalmysterycat is a full sister to Burmilla, who was successful in the 2007 Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) and is the dam of the judged winners Ragtime and Snowbell. Burmilla is also the third dam of last year’s Selene Stakes (G3) scorer Serendipity, and a full sister to Lexington Girl, who was a 2nd-place winner in Japan before repatriating to the United States, where she produced stakes winners Whirlin Curlin and Lexington Street.
Magicalmysterycat is out of the durable Valid Appeal mare Nannerl, who won 10 of 38 starts in 1992, including the Distaff Handicap (G2), Bed o’ Roses Handicap (G2) and Vagrancy Handicap (G3), and was placed Grade 1 twice. Nannerl’s mother, Alouette, is a half-sister to Fact Finder, a top athlete whose six stakes successes include the Matriarch Invitational Stakes (G1T) and Santa Barbara Handicap (G1T). The family traces its lineage back to the great foundation mare, Frizette, arriving in the US with the purchase of Frizette’s daughter, Lespedeza, by Colonel ER Bradley at the 1930 Newmarket Sales, the same year and auction in which Bradley purchased Lespedeza’s colleague Marcel Boussac, La Troienne.
A look at Pavlovian’s five-cross pedigree shows a 4×3 inbreeding to Storm Cat, via Giant’s Causeway and Magicalmysterycat. Storm Cat is by Northern Dancer out of a Secretariat mare, as is another horse in the fourth generation of the pedigree, Chief’s Crown, Bellamy Road’s paternal grandfather. That Storm Cat/Chief’s Crown combination can be found in 107 individual stakes winners, eight of which are in Group or Grade 1, most notably Calandagan, the highest ranked of the world’s best racehorses for 2025, and like Pavlovian, a Giant’s Causeway/Chief’s Crown cross.
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