Paul Townend has a beautiful ride book ready for Sunday, and I went through his preview with a fine-tooth comb to see where the value might be hiding. The champion jockey has given us some brilliant insights into his mounts, and there are certainly a few that stand out.
Starting with Last question on 2/5 in the 13:10 Novice Chase, Townend’s confidence is evident. He mentions that he “couldn’t get rid of him for anything” – that’s the kind of jockey confidence that gets me excited as a punter. Yes, the price is low, but if you have a jockey who remembers being excited about a horse’s performance at Navan and believes he underperformed last time, there is room for improvement. The opposition also includes Western Fold, who have similar ratings, but Townend’s enthusiasm makes this difficult to ignore.
Paul Townend on the latest demands Opportunities
“I start my Sunday rides with Last question 2/5 in the Novice Pursuit (13:10). I don’t think he blew anyone away in Limerick, but he still won. I think he underperformed that day, but I’m not sure he or the race ever became competitive enough for him to perform. He jumped well and gained valuable experience. I also have a wonderful memory of him near Navan during his novice chase. He really got me excited that day, and I can’t wait to work with him again. In opposition, Western Fold will not make it easy for him. There’s only a pound separating them in ratings and he’s in striking form when you go back. He was well behind Affordale Fury at Down Royal. We also have Kaid d’Authie and Jimmy Du Seuil, both of whom are certainly in good form, but I like Final Demand and I couldn’t get rid of him for anything during the race.”
King Rasko Gray and 12/5 in the 13:40 Novice Hurdle seems like great value to me, and many tipsters are also giving it a go. Townend was clearly impressed when he saw Danny Mullins drive him to victory on his debut and the form has been excellent ever since. When a jockey talks about a horse that sees the race “very, very strong” and says they will “step forward” with that run under their belt, I listen. This could be the pick of the day.
The Dublin Chase presents an interesting puzzle with 12 year old Energumeen at 8/1. Townend is spot on about the ground conditions: heavy ground suits this old warrior perfectly, and it’s been years since he’s had these conditions. The addition of the cheekpieces suggests they are looking for that extra spark, and at his age the slower ground could be the key to another big performance.
Lossiemouth on 11/10 in the Irish Champion Hurdle, Townend is really confident. His analysis of the December Hurdle rematch with Brighterdaysahead is telling: he felt he ‘always held’ his rival and describes himself as a ‘snug winner’. That’s the kind of trust that translates to the gambling ring.
Paul Townend on Lossiemouth’s chances
“It’s next Lossiemouth 11/10 in the Irish Champion Hurdle (15:20). It’s a rematch with Brighterdaysahead from the December Hurdle, which we won at the end of last year. I think it will be a different race than Christmas. I thought I had to do the donkey work of overtaking Anzadam as he passed us along the straight. Then I just stayed at the front and felt like I was always holding Brighterdaysahead. Lossiemouth does not usually run or gallop away from horses, especially if she is not asked to do so. I hope I get her again. We had race fitness at Christmas and now they have the run under their belt.
Anzadam is still a very good horse, I think, if they can channel that energy in the right direction. But it looks like it’s between the two mares. I just watched the December Hurdle back last night and, you know, she closed in behind the last one. She galloped straight to the line, so you could say she needed the running. I traveled down the straight much better than Jack. He was chomping at the bit on the home straight at the end of the penultimate lap, and she kept galloping straight to the line. That would lead me to believe she was pretty race ready, so I thought I was a good winner on the last day.
Finally, Murcia on September 1 in the listed handicap a value looks both ways in a competitive field. Townend acknowledges the weight concerns but highlights her success and improvement at Aintree since November. In a race where ‘everything is in the balance’, it makes sense to support the jockey’s choice.
Paul Townend about Murcia
“Finally I’m driving Murcia 9/1 in the list of handicap obstacles (15:52). It is a nice, large field with many good runners in it. I went for Murcia, even though it is a lot of weight for her to carry, and she is not a huge filly. Last year she ran well on the trials track at Naas and came second before heading to Cheltenham for the Fred Winter. I had an inkling of our chances at Aintree after that, and she won well. She had come to herself, and it was the ideal surface – she’s not going to get that here. She will also have taken a lot of steps for her run at Fairyhouse in November. We have nine horses in the stable for this race and they all have their chances in a race where everything is lurking with a nice weight.”
Overall, Townend has some serious chances today. King Rasko Gray And Lossiemouth seem like the strongest bets to me, with Murcia offering a decent every-way value. When a jockey of Townend’s caliber shares his thoughts openly, smart punters take notice.
Visit Betway’s betting on horse racing page.
#Paul #Town #chances #Leopardstown #Sunday #Tipster #Reviews