It will be the No. 1 seed versus the No. 2 seed when the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots clash in the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon in Denver. But this probably won’t be your normal title tilt between the top two seeds. In fact, outside of the two cities directly involved, this could be an ugly, low-scoring and borderline cluttered affair. Either way, the stakes could hardly be higher when a spot in Super Bowl LX is on the line.
Let’s dive into my Patriots vs. Broncos predictions dive.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Odds
Moneyline: Patriots -235 / Broncos +194
Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-108) / Broncos +4.5 (-112)
Total: More than 42.5 (-110) / Less than 42.5 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Best Bet No. 1: Patriots -4.5 (-108)
The euphoria over their epic divisional round victory over the Bills didn’t last long for the Broncos, as head coach Sean Payton stunningly announced during his post-game press conference that starting quarterback Bo Nix would miss the remainder of the playoffs with a broken ankle he suffered on the penultimate play of the game. Jarrett Stidham enters. Abandoning Denver’s Super Bowl hopes? Not necessarily, but Stidham certainly doesn’t inspire any confidence. In his six-year NFL career, the Auburn product has played in just 20 games and had as many interceptions as touchdown passes (eight each). He completes less than 60 percent of his passes. Stidham will need a lot of help from the running game, but that’s part of the Broncos offense that has struggled since JK Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Dobbins returned to practice on a limited basis earlier this week, but is not expected to play.
To make matters worse, the home team will face an excellent New England defense. In the regular season, the Patriots were No. 8 in total defense, No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 6 against the run. They held the Chargers to just three points in the wild-card round and forced five Texans turnovers last weekend. With MVP candidate Drake Maye running the show on the other side of the ball, head coach Mike Vrabel’s roster is extremely well-rounded. It’s simply hard to back Denver — even against the spread — when the QB matchup is Stidham versus Maye.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Best Player Prop Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110)
Stevenson will share time with TreVeyon Henderson in New England’s backfield, but Stevenson has much more experience than the rookie – so it’s no surprise that the fifth-year veteran has been given the bulk of the work in these playoffs. He also delivered. Through two games, Stevenson has 33 touches (26 carries) for 209 yards from scrimmage; Henderson has 21 touches (21 carries) for 59 total yards.
On the ground, Stevenson had 53 yards against the Chargers and 60 yards against the Texans. That was preceded by a 131-yard burst against Miami in the regular-season finale. Especially if New England gets out to an early lead and can continue to build on it, the former Oklahoma standout should get plenty of carries and a good number of yards.
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