The question heading into next season, of course, is how much the team has to spend, and the answer appears to be the same $211 million to $221 million range. “We expect payroll to remain at a similar level to last year… We are running the club as we have for the last five or six years,” said Padres chairman John Seidler Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters on Monday during the Winter Meetings.
This latest update from Seidler himself essentially reiterates the approach Acee reported as the Padres’ direction in November, when the Seidler family announced they were exploring a potential sale of the team. That doesn’t mean the Padres aren’t still looking to shed or reallocate salary cap space, as per reports that the club is open to a move. Nick Pivetta or Jake Cronenworth.
Cot’s projects that the Padres have approximately $196.2 million allocated to 2026 payroll, with a luxury tax number of $233.2 million. RosterResource’s calculations are slightly higher on both fronts, with a payroll of $201.3 million and a tax number of $234.5 million. That leaves AJ Preller’s front office with just a little bit of payroll room before reaching the 2025 figure, and a similarly low level of breathing room to keep San Diego under the $244 million tax threshold. The Padres fell below the tax threshold in 2024 to reset themselves to first-timer status, so they will pay a lower penalty if they exceed the secondary threshold again in 2025. Presumably, ownership would be fine with another tax bill in 2026 as a cost to keep the team in contention.
Dylan stops has already left in free agency to sign with the Blue Jays, and Michael King, Robert SuarezAnd Luis Arraez are San Diego’s most prominent other free agents. Yu Darvish will also miss the 2026 season in the wake of an internal brace procedure, so starting pitching is therefore clearly the biggest need for the team. A seemingly counterproductive move like a Pivetta trade would therefore be aimed at taking some salary off the books, perhaps adding several arms back in the return, and perhaps getting away from the uncertainty of Pivetta’s player opt-out after the 2026 campaign.
Intriguingly, Acee is also hearing from a few sources that Preller is working on at least one blockbuster-style deal. No specific players were mentioned as being involved, and Acee notes that it is uncertain whether these talks will lead to a trade anytime soon, or if the talks are more than speculative. Preller is no stranger to making big trades, so it’s not surprising that the president of baseball operations is exploring another headline-making move as he looks to put the finishing touches on the need to finally get San Diego back to the World Series.
Preller also said Monday that some flexibility could be built into the Padres’ spending once the team has a better idea of what kinds of moves — big or small — might be realistic.
“We’ll get an idea of where we are from a payroll number and then see what comes out of the conversations this week. And then that could be a higher number [or a] lower number. I think it really depends a bit on the conversations about who is there and what we think we can do,” said Preller.
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