The widespread appeal is understandable because Peralta is both good and cheap. Dating back to early 2021, he has given the Brewers 738 1/3 innings, allowing 3.30 earned runs per nine. His 9% walk rate in that time was close to league average, while he struck out a whopping 29.6% of batters he faced. He just completed a 2025 season in which he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate.
Milwaukee signed Peralta in 2020, before he was established as a viable big league starter. That deal ended up being a huge win for the Brewers as it was only a $15.5 million guarantee over five years. It also included $8 million club options for 2025 and 2026. By the time these options rolled around, they were obvious bargains and were snapped up without hesitation.
That salary with a one-year contract is very attractive for all teams. The top starting pitchers often earn between $25 million and $45 million per year on multi-year deals. This offseason has seen Dylan stops, Ranger Suarez And Michael King country average annual values in the range of $25-30 million. In short, Peralta’s deal is a bargain.
That makes him very attractive for all clubs. For big-spending teams, Peralta is a theoretical rotation upgrade without the big contract. Most of the top spenders also face huge tax bills, which in many cases more than double the cost of signing a free agent. For teams with payroll problems, being able to get a top executive without a high price is obviously also useful.
It also makes Peralta valuable to the Brewers, who never spend big money. But the fact that Peralta is approaching free agency puts them in a tough spot. Their low payroll costs usually make it difficult for them to sign their players long-term, which could lead to them being traded as free agency approaches.
In recent years, players like it Corbin Burnes And Josh Hader were traded as their respective control windows narrowed. But with Willy AdamesMilwaukee decided to hold on to him until he hit the open market. They collected compensation in the form of an additional draft pick after he rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Giants.
Peralta could go either way. President of baseball operations Matt Arnold downplayed the trade opportunity in November, but the club is also reportedly concerned about payroll. Earlier this month, they were one of nine teams to end broadcast agreements with Main Street Sports. It’s possible they can negotiate a new deal or get MLB to sort things out, but they will almost certainly bring in less broadcast revenue in 2026 compared to the year before.
Trading Peralta wouldn’t save the Brewers much money, but it would allow them to theoretically strengthen other parts of the roster without having to spend on free agents. However, no offer has forced them to pull the trigger yet, and the pitchers and catchers will report for spring training in less than three weeks.
The Padres make a lot of sense as a landing spot for Peralta. Rotation depth was a concern for them through 2025, but they lost Cease and King to free agency at the end of the season. Shortly afterwards, Yu Darvish underwent UCL surgery, ruling him out for the entire 2026 campaign.
They have since brought back King, but it would make sense to further strengthen the rotation. Currently they are expecting King, Nick Pivetta And Joe Musgrove in three spots, followed by a cluster of potential depth options including Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, Kyle Hart And Matt Waldron.
Even within that group, there are notable questions. King is coming off an injury-hit season. Pivetta has faced some trade rumors due to his delayed contract. Musgrove is coming back from missing 2025 and recovering from Tommy John surgery. Vásquez had a nice ERA of 3.84 last year, but only a strikeout rate of 13.7%. Sears, Waldron and Hart all had bad seasons.
It makes sense to expand that group, but the Friars have seemed to be walking a tightrope financially for a few years now. Their payroll peaked in 2023, but in the offseasons since then they have tried to work around an apparent lack of spending capacity. That seemed to increase motivation Juan Soto trade two offseasons ago. Last winter they were able to sign Pivetta, but with an unusual structure. It was $55 million over four years, but with only a $3 million signing bonus and a $1 million signing bonus in the first year.
Grid source expects payroll next year to reach $220 million, slightly higher than last year’s expenses. The competitive balance tax figure is set at $262 million, above the base threshold of $244 million. The Padres reset their tax status in 2024, but paid the tax last year. This means that they would be the second payer in 2026, leading to a basic tax rate of 30%. If we go above $264 million, the tax rate on spending above that limit would increase to 42%.
That likely makes the Padres at least somewhat reluctant to spend big on a free agent like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen or Chris Bassitt. Rosenthal writes that their preferred spending range is between $8 million and $12 million, and he’s hovering Nick Martinez, Luke Giolito And Justin Verlander as guys who could theoretically fall into that range.
While Peralta’s $8 million salary would undoubtedly be attractive, especially if they were to move Pivetta and his $19 million salary in 2026, the Brewers would want something notable in return. It would be counterproductive to withdraw from the big league roster, and the Padres have also traded away a large number of prospects in recent years, including sending away top prospects. Leo De Vries to athletics last year Mason Miller agreement. Closing a deal with Milwaukee could be difficult.
As for the Dodgers, Woo notes that their interest likely signals some concern from the club regarding the current rotation mix. The Dodgers have a great starting group on paper, but question most of the individuals. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the only man left on the roster who topped 91 innings last year. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani And Roki Sasaki all fell below that limit due to different health conditions. The Dodgers probably don’t expect the entire group to stay healthy until 2026.
They also appear better positioned than the Padres to provide the Brewers with the kind of young, controllable pitching they would likely want in return. Sheehan and Sasaki are both still in their pre-arb years. The same goes for guys like Ben Casparius, River Ryan, Kyle hurt, Justin Wrobleski, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and others.
Woo also floats outfielder Ryan Ward as a possibility, with the recent one Kyle Tucker signature blocking his path. She writes that the Dodgers were considering a platoon of left-swinging Ward and Righty Alex Bell before landing Tucker, so Ward could be expendable now. The Brewers withdrew from their outfield this offseason when they traded Isaac Collins next to the Royals Nick Mears to be acquired left-handed Angel Zerpa. They still have a decent group included Christian Jelich, Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins and others.
Whether the Brewers can be forced to complete a trade remains to be seen. Without Peralta, their rotation would still consist of a pretty good group inclusive Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Tobias Myers and others, plus whatever they can get in return in the Peralta trade. But they could also just hold onto Peralta to make another run in 2026. If Peralta is healthy in a season, he would have a chance to decline a QO, which would give the Brewers a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
#Padres #expressed #interest #Freddy #Peralta