Stock market forecast in the week of 5 October = Trend
ANALYSIS
The outlook of the stock market continues to show a layout for US shares.
The S&P500 ($ Spx) Rose 1.1% last week. The index is ~ 3% above the 50-day advancing average and ~ 11% above the 200-day advancing average.
All three indicators are bullish.
SPX price and volume card before October 5, 2025
Performance comparisons
Healthcare ($ XLV) Was ~ 7% rose last week (!), Related all other sectors with a wide margin. After the recent run -up, energy ($ XLE) Part of his momentum lost, thanks in part to crude oil, and the weakest returns registered. Healing and real estate ($ XLRE) improved to bullish bias, while materials ($ XLB) slid to neutral.
S&P sector performance from week 40 of 2025
High beta ($ SHBB) Last week better than the growth and quality of small caps ($ IWO & $ Qual) Right behind. Momentum ($ Mtum) Was the only losing style. High dividend ($ Sphd) Packed back to bullish bias of neutral.
Sector style performance from week 40 of 2025
Bitcoin ($ 4) I have his mojo back, jumps ~ 13%and recovered bullish bias. On the other hand, oil ($ Use) Last week ~ 7% fell and returned to Beerarish bias … only a week after the crash of ~ 5% who moved to Bullish.
Active class performance of week 40 2025
COMMENTARY
Last week’s data releases showed the openings of August in August (Shocks) somewhat increased. The in collaboration with Manufacturing Survey also shows a small improvement, while services were slightly lower. The main course, non-agricultural wage lists, were not released because of the closure of the US government, so other tea leaves must read prior to the next FOMC meeting.
Although there has been a lot of noise about interest rates and unemployment, the general indexes continue to march higher. Even a bit of volatility below the surface of the market (in terms of sectors and styles) has not done much to delay progress.
The best for your week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank or St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, Tradingconics.com, US Bureau or Economic Analysis, US Bureau or Labor Statistics, Tradingconics.com
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